Thursday, September 29, 2011

2011 Braves and Looking Ahead to 2012

 
    The Braves finished what turned out to be a monumental collapse last night. They let an 8 1/2 game wild card lead slip away. They closed the season with five straight losses while also losing 18 of the last 26 games, which allowed the St. Louis Cardinals to overtake them for the birth into the playoffs. With the Braves season ending I thought I would post some thoughts I had for the 2012 season.

    First, as many of you know if you follow me on twitter, my opinion of Fredi Gonzalez is not very high. Fredi Gonzalez has not been a good manager for the Braves this year. Wren did a fantastic job of putting more pieces on the team this year, and Fredi managed to win less games than the 2010 Braves. Granted, all of that is not his fault, but he is definitely to blame for some of it. Last night was just another example of Fredi's futility. The Phillies started right-handed pitcher Joe Blanton. Prior to last night's game, Diaz had a slash line of .222/.260/.282 against RHP, while Heyward's slash line was .238/.335/.417. Granted, Fredi knew of the Phillies plan to pitch Hamels who is a LHP in the middle of the game, but there was no guarantee that Diaz would come up against him. Not only that, but Fredi could have pinch hit Heyward for Diaz when the Phils put in right-hander Vance Worley in the bottom of the 6th, but instead he left in Diaz and then subbed in Heyward as a defensive replacement in the top of the 7th. Please someone, explain to me how that makes sense. IT DOESN'T. This is just one example of the kind of decisions Fredi has been making all year. Fredi Gonzalez, in my opinion, needs to be relieved of his duties by Frank Wren.

   Another contributing factor to the Braves demise is their poor hitting. I think a lot of this has to be laid at the feet of hitting coach Larry Parrish. The Braves showed no discipline for most of the season. They turned into hackers. This is shown by the terrible team on base percentage of .308, which had them ranked 3 spots above last place in that category in the National League. The Braves hitters struggled to improve over the season, and that ended up costing them a spot in the playoffs in the end. If Braves' GM Frank Wren allows Fredi Gonzalez to stay on for another year, at the very least they need to find a replacement for Parrish.

    Many Braves fans will disagree with me on this, but Martin Prado does not need to start in left field for the Braves in 2012. He had the second worst OBP of all the regular starters with a .304 mark. And unlike Alex Gonzalez who had the worst OBP, Prado is not a gold glove candidate in left field. There are two options for the Braves to take with Prado. First, they could make him into a bench utility player. This wouldn't be a bad option because Chipper has already stated that he is absolutely coming back next year. So when Chipper inevitably gets hurt, the Braves can plug Prado into that spot, as well as plug him into any other position on the field when someone needs a break. The second option would be to dangle Prado on the trade market. Prado's value is on the decline, and it may be wise to see what the market might bring for him. Either way, Prado doesn't need to be starting in left field on opening day.

     Heyward needs to start every day. The Braves will be doing themselves a big injustice if they pigeon hole Heyward into a platoon hitter. If they start Diaz over Heyward against left handers, they will be making a big mistake. Granted Heyward did not have a good year against LHP in 2011 with an OBP and slugging percentage of only .270/.308. However, he has shown that he can do ok against LHP in the past. In 2010 his slash line was .249/.356/.399 and he also hit LHP well in the minors. Compare that to Diaz's line this year of .298/.338/.359 against LHP, and you can see that Diaz actually hasn't been that great. If you label Heyward a platoon player this early, you really stunt his growth. The more at bats he gets against LHP, the better he will be. Remember, he's only 22 years old.

    There is no way Derek Lowe should be on the Braves' roster in 2012. I don't care if you have to eat his contract, you have to get rid of him. Release him, trade him for some bats and balls, it really doesn't matter, just get rid of him. Derek Lowe finished the season with a 9-17 record and a 5.05 ERA and an 0-5 record with a 8.75 ERA in September. He allowed opposing hitters to get on base at a .347 clip and slug .406 against him. Just terrible. With the stockpiled young talent in the pitching department, Lowe should not be in the rotation. Hudson, Beachy, Minor, Hanson, Delgado, Teheran, and even Jurrjens are all better options than Derek Lowe. And although he will probably end up being a reliever, Medlen looked nasty in his two appearances at the end of this season and I would even rather have him starting than Lowe.

    With all that said, the Braves have a very bright future. They have a lot of awesome young talent that hopefully will bloom into what should be a good Braves team for many years to come. With Beachy, Minor, Hanson, Delgado, Teheran, Vizcaino, Heyward, Freeman, McCann, Uggla, and Bourn, the Braves have an unbelievable core to build on. They just need a few things to happen to put them in the right place to capitalize on it.

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

A Look at Week 5 in the SEC

Week 4 didn't bring much excitement within the SEC. Other than LA Tech taking Mississippi State to overtime, all the games went as expected and weren't that close. My predictions from last week ended up 8-0, which came as a result of there not really being any difficult games to pick other than the non-SEC game I included. LSU throttled another ranked team, and still have all the makings of a national title contender. Alabama looked impressive as well, destroying a quality Arkansas team. It's shaping up to be a heavyweight bout between Alabama and LSU on November 5th.

Now let's take a look at Week 5...

Game of the Week
Will Rainey and the Gators be able
to pull off the upset?
#3 Alabama at #12 Florida (8:00 PM, CBS): This game will really tell us if Florida is the real deal or not. They are undefeated so far, and have looked much more impressive than I thought they would be in their first season under Will Muschamp. It will be interesting to see Florida's dynamic speed in Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps against Alabama's lock down defense. This game being in The Swamp makes it intriguing and definitely increases Florida's chances of pulling the upset. However, Alabama's defense is for real, and they have looked very impressive so far this year. It also helps to have two power backs in Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy that will help turn the time of possession in Alabama's favor. Alabama wins, but it will be their closest game so far this year.
     Prediction: Alabama 24-21

Top Tier Games:
Michael Dyer Michael Dyer #5 of the Auburn Tigers is tackled by Antonio Allen #26 of the South Carolina Gamecocks during the 2010 SEC Championship at Georgia Dome on December 4, 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia.
Auburn will have to give Dyer more
carries if they want to have any
chance to win.
Auburn at #10 South Carolina (3:30 PM, CBS): This game will begin a very tough four game stretch for the Auburn Tigers. In the next four weeks they play on the road against South Carolina and Arkansas, home against Florida, and then back on the road to take on LSU. I think most Auburn fans would consider it a victory to come out of that stretch 2-2 and would maybe take being 1-3. Auburn's biggest challenge is going to be trying to stop Marcus Lattimore with their defense that has been porous so far this season. According to Vegas, Auburn is a 10 point underdog. The plausible reason for an Auburn upset is the fact that South Carolina's Stephen Garcia has thrown 7 interceptions in the last 3 games, and that will give any team a chance. However, you know that South Carolina has had this date circled on their calendar for a year after getting beat twice by AU last season including a thrashing in the SEC Championship Game. My heart tells me Auburn, but my head tells me South Carolina. South Carolina wins, but, as Lee Corso would say, it will be closer than the experts think.
     Prediction: South Carolina 34-31


#14 Texas A&M at #18 Arkansas (12:00 PM, ESPN): Both of these teams are coming off their first loss of the season last week. Texas A&M was officially admitted into the SEC this week and so it's a nifty coincidence that they also face an SEC opponent as well. A&M has the same problem this week that they had last week against Oklahoma State, and that's a high powered offense. Arkansas has an elite passing game along with home field advantage, and for those reasons Arkansas will pull out the victory.
     Prediction: Arkansas 31-27


Mississippi State at Georgia (12:00 PM, FSN): Both of these teams have definitely had their struggles this season. Mississippi State had a 1-2 LA Tech team take them to overtime last week and Georgia started off the season with two straight losses. However, Georgia is coming off of two straight wins and is looking to build that momentum with a win over MSU. Although Georgia has had its flaws, they have shown more than Mississippi State this season. Georgia takes the victory at home.
    Prediction: Georgia 28-17

Bonus Non-SEC Game
Wisconsin's Russell Wilson
#8 Nebraska at #7 Wisconsin (8:00 PM, ABC): This game features a top ten matchup between two Big Ten foes. Russell Wilson has fit in perfectly at Wisconsin and has the makings of a potential Heisman candidate. What could have been for Auburn, right? Wisconsin has a very impressive defense that ranks right behind Alabama as the #3 scoring defense in the nation only allowing 8.5 points per game. The defense has looked good and Russell Wilson has jolted the offense this season and has them hitting on all cylinders scoring 48.5 points per game. Wisconsin wins this showdown at Camp Randall Stadium.
    Prediction: Wisconsin 31-21


The Rest
Kentucky at #1 LSU (12:21 PM, SEC Network): LSU 44-7
Buffalo at Tennessee (12:30 PM, CSS): Tennessee 31-10
Ole Miss at Fresno State (9:15 PM, ESPN2): 24-17 Ole Miss
*All Times Eastern


Lucas' Week 4 Record: 8-0
Lucas' Season Record: 33-6

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

A Look at Week 4 in the SEC

I continued my trend of missing on two games per week in Week 3. I missed on Auburn and Kentucky. I knew that the Kentucky game would be a coin toss, and unfortunately I chose the wrong side of the coin. However, I did not expect what I saw from Auburn against Clemson on Saturday. The defense looked atrocious. The main causes for that seem to be poor tackling, bad angles, and inexperience. Auburn's defense have looked bad for the last three years, and would have been a lot worse last year if not for Nick Fairley and an experienced group of seniors. No one knows whether to place the blame on Defensive Coordinator Ted Roof, or Head Coach Gene Chizik because he is known to be a defensive mind. Regardless, if things don't change this season I think it's likely that Roof will be relieved of his duties in the offseason.

Now on to Week 4...

Game of the Week
Alabama's secondary will
try to shut down Tyler Wilson
#14 Arkansas at #3 Alabama (3:30 PM, CBS): Bobby Petrino's hogs will look to bring their high powered air attack to Tuscaloosa and pull out a win. In my Summer SEC West Predictions, I had Arkansas finishing above Alabama in the West standings. However, the loss of Knile Davis to an ankle injury after I wrote that has made Arkansas too one dimensional. I no longer see Arkansas being able to finish higher than Alabama. This game sets up to be very entertaining though, as it's strength on strength with Arkansas' passing game against Alabama's defense. If you remember last year, Arkansas had Alabama on the ropes early in that game in Fayetteville, but I don't see that there's any way Arkansas can upset Alabama in Bryant-Denny this year. Alabama's secondary is too good, and Tyler Wilson is too inexperienced in big games to be able to defeat a good Alabama team in a hostile environment. Alabama's defense wins out.
    Prediction: Alabama 27-17


Top Tier Games
LSU's Tyrann Mathieu
#2 LSU at #16 West Virginia (8:00 PM, ABC): LSU faces a difficult non-conference road test this week in having to travel to 16th ranked West Virginia. LSU needs to step up and win this game to prove that they are truly a national championship contender. I felt like LSU had a good chance to win the SEC and make the national championship before the season, and I still feel that way. Their defense really has looked phenomenal, and Jarrett Lee is doing enough to win. As Edward Aschoff of ESPN writes, LSU should continue to start Lee even if Jordan Jefferson comes back from suspension. He is not making many bad mistakes so far this season, and that's all they really need. Also, playmaker Russell Shepard is set to return from suspension this week, and that is big for LSU. He is by far their most dynamic offensive player and should make their offense better immediately.
    Prediction: LSU 28-10

Vanderbilt at #12 South Carolina (7:00 PM, ESPN): Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina? A top tier game? It looks to be so this year. Vanderbilt has looked very impressive in route to three straight wins to opens the season. They absolutely stomped Ole Miss last week 30-7. If South Carolina looks past Vanderblit because they have been a gimme in the past, they may be in for a surprise. However, I think South Carolina should be passed that by now after having a scare from Navy last week.
   Prediction: South Carolina 27-21

Second Tier Game
Georgia at Ole Miss (12:30 PM, SEC Network): This is a battle between two 1-2 teams that seem to be flailing right now. Georgia got their first win of the season last week against Coastal Carolina, and that may be what they needed to get back on track. Ole Miss has looked absolutely horrendous so far this season. If Georgia loses to Ole Miss then the fire Mark Richt train will be in full motion if it already isn't. But I don't expect that to happen.
    Prediction: Georgia 31-17

Bonus Non-SEC Game
#7 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas A&M (3:30 PM, ABC): This game is going to be exciting to watch as two top ten Big 12 members face off. Oklahoma State has looked very impressive so far this season. Senior quarterback Brandon Weeden has thrown for over 1,100 yards in just three games, and has arguably the best receiver in the NCAA at his disposal in Justin Blackmon. Texas A&M has looked good as well, stomping SMU and Idaho in the first two games of their season. However, I'm going with the Oklahoma State Cowboys and their top three ranked offense.
    Prediction: Oklahoma State 31-21


The Rest
FAU at Auburn (7:00 PM, FSN): 44-17 Auburn
LA Tech at Mississippi State (7 PM, ESPNU): 31-10 Mississippi State
#15 Florida at Kentucky (7 PM, ESPN): 38-7 Florida

Lucas' Week 3 Record: 7-2
Lucas' Season Record: 25-6

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

A Look at Week 3 in the SEC

Last week my predictions were 8-2, with my biggest miss being the Tennessee game. Clearly, I did not give UT enough credit, or maybe I just gave Cincinnati too much credit. Either way, I went out on a limb and the limb broke. So much for that. Also, Vanderbilt narrowly escaped their contest with UConn so I wasn't as off on that one, but I still got it wrong. On the season I am 18-4, but let's be honest, these first two weeks have been kind of easy.

Moving on to Week 3...

Game of the Week
LSU Running Back Michael Ford (42) Scores
LSU's Michael Ford
#3 LSU at #25 Mississippi State (Thursday, 8:00 PM, ESPN): This game is on during prime time on Thursday, and lots of college football fans will be watching. Mississippi State had a rough game last week, coming up just short of tying the score up against Auburn as time expired. The one thing that MSU did well against Auburn was run the football. They ran the ball very well and Auburn pretty much couldn't stop them even when they knew that Relf or Ballard were going to come right at them. They will not be able to do that against LSU, as they have a very stout run defense. If you combine that with the fact that MSU has a short week to recover from a game where they left it all on the field and prepare for a good LSU team, they don't have much of a chance.
    Prediction: LSU 27-14

Top Tier Games:
Will Da'Rick Rogers and the Vols pull an upset
in The Swamp?
Tennessee at #16 Florida (3:30 PM, CBS): This game has the potential to go down to the wire. Neither one of these teams have really faced much in the way of opposition in their first two weeks. Tennessee beat a decent Cincy team last week, and Florida has had two gimmes in FAU and UAB. This will be the first real test for the both of them. If this game was at Neyland, I would say that UTK would definitely win, but being at The Swamp makes this a whole different story. The Gators have had the Vols' number lately, winning six in a row in the series, and I don't expect that to change this weekend although it's a tough call.
    Prediction: Florida 27-24

#21 Auburn at Clemson (12:00 PM, ABC): Auburn got a scare from Utah State in their season opener, and then squeaked by a quality Mississippi State team with a stop at the goal line as time expired this past Saturday. This young, resilient team once again just refused to lose. Clemson struggled to beat Troy and Wofford who most would have thought to be cupcakes for them prior to the season. This game at the ACC's version of "Death Valley" will be the first road test for a very young Auburn squad. I think it will be close, but Auburn will come out on top. As Scott Van Pelt said on SportsCenter on Saturday, "it's like they literally have forgotten how to lose."
    Prediction: Auburn 45-41

Interesting Unimportant Game:
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt (12:21 PM, SEC Network): Ole Miss just seems like a program that is going down and going down quickly. Vanderbilt looked pretty good coming from behind to beat a solid UConn team last week to push their record to 2-0. Vanderbilt will beat the sinking ship of Ole Miss at home.
    Prediction: Vanderbilt 21-13

The Rest:
Coastal Carolina at Georgia (1:00 PM, PPV): Georgia 49-10
Navy at #11 South Carolina (6:00 PM, ESPN2): South Carolina 35-24
North Texas at #2 Alabama (7:30 PM, FSS): Alabama 42-7
Troy at #14 Arkansas (7:30 PM, CSS): Arkansas 48-17
Louisville at Kentucky (7:00 PM, ESPNU): Kentucky 21-13
*All Times Eastern

Lucas' Week 2 Record: 8-2
Lucas' Season Record: 18-4

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Week 2 in the SEC

Well, I ended up being 10-2 with my picks last week, but I missed 2 out of the 3 most difficult games to pick. I knew they would be hard games to predict, and I waffled on them for a while and ended up missing them. But hey, if I go 10-2 every week I will be pretty happy.

Week 2 brings a little bit more excitement than Week 1 did. There should be more close games on the docket for the second week of the season. So without further delay, here is what to expect this week...
Stephen Garcia Stephen Garcia #5 of the South Carolina Gamecocks drops back to pass against against the Arkansas Razorbacks during their game at Williams-Brice Stadium on November 6, 2010 in Columbia, South Carolina.
Georgia vs. South Carolina is the game of the week

Marquee Matchups:

Georgia vs. South Carolina (4:30 PM ET, ESPN): Do not underestimate how big this game is in determining the SEC East. As I said in my Summer SEC East Predictions, this game will most likely decide where both teams end up finishing in the standings. South Carolina unexpectedly struggled for a little bit last week against ECU because Steve Spurrier surprisingly decided to start Connor Shaw over Stephen Garcia. However, once Garcia was inserted into the lineup the Gamecocks' offense immediately started producing. He ran for a 32 yard touchdown on his first drive and after that SC had no problems moving the ball. Georgia, on the other hand, got routed by Boise State in their season opener. Georgia looks to have a lot of problems. The most obvious being their defense. Kellen Moore absolutely carved up their secondary going 28-34 with 261 yard and 3 touchdowns. The second biggest problem for the dogs is their running game. Outside of an 80 yard touchdown run by Brandon Boykin, UGA only had 72 rushing yards on 22 attempts from their top two running backs. Something needs to improve there for them to be successful this season. Look for South Carolina to carve up Georgia's defense with Alshon Jeffrey and Marcus Lattimore.
        Prediction: 28-17 South Carolina

Will Auburn's defense step up
this week?
Auburn vs. Mississippi State (12:21 PM ET, SEC Network): Auburn struggled last week against Utah State, needing an onside kick in the 4th quarter to pull out a victory. It remains to be seen whether that was a one game fluke or a foreshadowing of what's to come for the tigers. Part of their problem this season is their youth. On Saturday Auburn played 22 true and redshirt freshmen against a senior-laden Utah State team, and that proved to be a problem mostly on defense. However, they did show the resiliency of the 2010 National Championship team by coming from behind to win yet again. Mississippi State on the other hand, looked pretty good against Memphis. I don't know how much you can take from that game, being that Memphis was a 1-11 team last year, but nonetheless MSU looked disciplined on defense and solid on offense. This may sound crazy, but I think that Auburn will pull out the victory against the bulldogs this weekend. Last week will serve as a wake up call that work needs to be done for Auburn's young team, and they will make their biggest improvement of the season between last Saturday and this Saturday. That combined with the fact that this game is at Jordan-Hare Stadium means that Auburn will upset MSU for the victory. I think that the homefield advantage will be too much, but if this game was in Starkville there is no doubt the MSU would win the game.
       Prediction: 34-31 Auburn

Second Tier Matchups: 
Penn State vs. Alabama (3:30 PM ET, ABC): In all honesty, this won't be that close. Alabama has a suffocating defense and that is all they will need to beat Penn State at Beaver Stadium. Alabama's quarterbacks did not look great last week against Kent State throwing 4 interceptions, but it was pretty clear that A.J. McCarron deserves to be the starter. He doesn't need to do more than manage the game and Alabama will pull out the victory.
       Prediction: 27-10 Alabama

Tennessee vs. Cincinnati (3:30 PM ET, ESPN2): This game is going to be won by a very slim margin. Tennessee seems to be on the upswing as a program, but Cincinnati has a vaunted offense that will put up points in a hurry. They are returning QB Zach Collaros, who threw for over 3,100 yards last year, RB Isaiah Pead, as well as big time playmaker DJ Woods. Cincinnati looks a lot like a poor man's Oregon, and if you remember the ducks had no problem destroying UT last year 48-13. Cincy's explosive offense put up 72 points against Austin Peay last week and will be too much for the Vols this week.
       Prediction: 31-27 Cincinnati

The Rest:
Arkansas vs. New Mexico (7:00 PM ET, ESPNU): 41-13 Arkansas
LSU vs. Northwestern St. (8:00 PM ET): 35-7 LSU
Ole Miss vs. Southern Ill. (6:00 PM ET): 24-17 Ole Miss
Florida vs. UAB (7:00 PM ET, FSS): 31-6 Florida
Kentucky vs. Central Michigan (12:00 PM ET, ESPNU): 14-10 Kentucky
Vanderbilt vs. UConn (7:30 PM ET, CSS): 21-17 UConn

Lucas' Season Record: 10-2