A Look at Week 13 in the SEC

Last week I was 7-1 bringing my season total to 78-13 heading into the final week of the regular season. The only game I missed was Vanderbilt-Tennessee, which had a wacky ending with a Tennessee interception in overtime ending the game. So I was close, but no cigar. There were so many upsets outside of the SEC, that the SEC West now features the #1, 2, and 3 teams in the nation. Talk about a strong division.

Week 13 brings the best slate of games that I believe we have seen all season. It's rivalry week, and so you know that there is a lot on the line for these teams. You never know what may happen in rivalry games, as unexpected upsets seem to be the norm and games are usually always close, even when the game features two teams who don't look that close on paper. It should be a great weekend...

Game of the Week

LSU QB Jordan Jefferson

#3 Arkansas at #1 LSU (Friday, 2:30 PM, CBS): Game of the Century #2? Quite possibly. It helps that LSU will have this game at home, but this is the final test of the regular season for the Bengal Tigers, and it will be a tough one. Arkansas has been playing really well lately, and have vastly improved since they played Alabama in Week 4 of the season. However, LSU is really hot as well. They were beating Ole Miss so badly last week that they decided to take a knee with five minutes left in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson has taken over the starting role from Jarrett Lee after Lee threw two picks against Alabama, and Jefferson has not looked back. However, this will be his first major test as the starter. I think he passes the test and the Tigers will hold true to my prediction that they will be in the national title game this year. Death Valley and LSU's top-two defense will be too much for the Razorbacks.
    Prediction: LSU 27-24

Top Tier Games
#2 Alabama at #24 Auburn (3:30 PM, CBS): The Iron Bowl. The biggest rivalry in sports. This game will decide bragging rights in the state of Alabama for the next 364 days. Alabama has a lot on the line, as they are looking to try and lock up the #2 spot in the polls to be able to play a rematch against LSU in the National Title game. Or, they also still have the potential to make it to the SEC championship should LSU lose to Arkansas or Georgia. I won't get into all the tie breaker rules, but just know that it is still a possibility. Auburn has not been playing well lately. The Tigers were throttled by Georgia two weeks ago, and did not have the most impressive of showings against Samford last weekend.
      However, one strength of Ted Roof's Auburn defense over the years has been the ability to stop the power run game, which Alabama relies heavily on. For example, Auburn held talented South Carolina running back Marcus Lattimore to an average 49.5 yards per game the last two years and also held Alabama to an average of 69 rushing yards per game as a team in 2009-2010. Auburn will have a similar gameplan in place in hopes to stop Heisman candidate Trent Richardson, who is averaging 125 yards rushing per game this season. That it is a tall order, but I think that they will accomplish it to an extent, making this game closer than a lot of the experts think. Nevertheless, it is going to be near impossible for an Auburn offense that has really struggled this year to score on Alabama's top ranked defense. Auburn's offensive line has just been plain bad, and that will not change this week as I expect Alabama's defensive line and linebackers to dominate the line of scrimmage. The only thing stopping this from being a total blowout is that it is the Iron Bowl, and it is at Auburn.
      Prediction: Alabama 27-10

#17 Clemson at #12 South Carolina (7:45 PM, ESPN): This should be an excellent matchup. Clemson was poised to make a run at a National Championship appearance this year before Georgia Tech derailed their dreams a few weeks ago, and then NC State unexpectedly demolished the Tigers this past week. South Carolina's defense has been phenomenal, but their offense has been very suspect. QB Connor Shaw is not quite as developed as a passer as they had hoped, and losing Marcus Lattimore for the season has also placed a strain on the offensive production. Clemson's offense will be able to find ways to score on South Carolina's defense, and South Carolina will not be able to keep up offensively. Clemson will simply outscore South Carolina for the victory.
     Prediction: Clemson 28-21

#13 Georgia at #23 Georgia Tech (12:00 PM, ESPN): This is a battle to be the state of Georgia's best team, and the game is usually a fight. Georgia is playing in hopes that they can sneak into a BCS bowl. The Bulldogs did not play very well against Kentucky last week, but look for them to rebound and improve from that performance as they try to stifle Paul Johnson's unique triple option attack.
     Prediction: Georgia 27-21

Florida State at Florida (7:00 PM, ESPN2): These two teams have fallen out of national relevance, but that doesn't diminish the importance that both programs will place on this game. Florida State is coming off a disappointing loss to Virginia, and Florida allowed Furman to score 22 points in the first quarter last week. Florida State has the #7 ranked defense in the country in terms of total defense, and that will be too much for a Florida team that has struggled with its offense lately.
    Predicition: Florida State 24-13

The Rest
Vanderbilt at Wake Forest (3:30 PM, CBS): Vanderbilt just can't get any breaks. They have lost narrowly in several games now, including last week's overtime loss to Tennessee. If quarterback Jordan Rodgers can take care of the football, the Commodores will win this game against a sneaky Wake Forest team. Vanderbilt will finally get over the proverbial hump this week with a victory, and become bowl eligible for the first time since 2008.
    Prediction: Vanderbilt 31-28

Tennessee at Kentucky (12:21 PM, SEC Network): Tennessee got a lot of momentum from the return of quarterback Tyler Bray last week. He made a huge difference in the offensive performance, throwing for 189 yards and two touchdowns and leading the Vols to victory. Most importantly, he got the ball to wide receiver Da'Rick Rogers's hands, who is one of UT's best playmakers. Rogers cashed in, catching 10 passes for 116 yards and two touchdowns. Kentucky is the worst team in the SEC East. The Wildcats only have one SEC win so far this season, and this week will not bring their second. Tennessee will win and become bowl eligible in their last chance to do so.
    Prediction: Tennessee 31-13

Ole Miss at Mississippi State (7:00 PM, ESPNU): This game has not mattered on a national scale in a long time. Ole Miss is really bad this year, but Mississippi State isn't a whole lot better. Mississippi State had high expectations coming into the year after a nine win 2009, but has not lived up to the hype by only winning five games including only one SEC win. However, Mississippi State is good enough to win this year's Egg Bowl and will get its sixth win for the chance to go to a lower tier bowl game.
     Prediction: Mississippi State 27-17
*All Times Eastern

Lucas's Week 12 Record: 7-1
Lucas's Season Record: 78-13

A Look at Week 12 in the SEC

    Last week I had one of my worst weeks of the season. I was 5-2 and missed severely on the Auburn-Georgia game. Georgia destroyed Auburn in all aspects of the game, something I didn't not see happening. I gave way too much credence to Georgia's soft schedule and didn't place enough importance on how hot Georgia has been as a team recently. If the Bulldogs can take care of business against Kentucky this week they will win the SEC East. The other game I missed was Ole Miss-LA Tech. Ole Miss could not even win their homecoming game, and that was something I did not predict. Ole Miss' program is in shambles, and they will need a quality head coach to help turn the program around.

   This week's slate of games incredibly disappointing. There are zero marquee matchups, but it will pick back up again next week.

   On to Week 12...

Game of the Week

Vanderbilt QB Jordan Rodgers

Vanderbilt at Tennessee (7:00 PM, ESPNU): This game is potentially big for both teams. Vanderbilt needs to win this game to become bowl eligible, and Tennessee needs to win this week and next week against Kentucky to reach bowl eligibility status. Tyler Bray is reportedly supposed to be back for this game, but how well he will play is remaining to be seen. Vanderbilt has been playing well recently. The 'Dores played Georgia, Arkansas, and Florida close and then absolutely dismantled Kentucky last week. Quarterback Jordan Rodgers has sparked this team since he began starting and has them really playing well. Bray will most likely rusty and not as effective as the Vols need him to be in order to win. Vanderbilt has been playing well as of late and Tennessee has been just the opposite. Vanderbilt goes into Neyland and wins.
     Prediction: Vanderbilt 24-20


Second Tier Games
Mississippi State at #6 Arkansas (3:30 PM, CBS): Mississippi State is 1-5 in the SEC and has not performed up to their high expectations coming into the year. Arkansas has been streaking and dominated Tennessee last week 49-7. Mississippi State's defense is no match for Arkansas' passing offense led by junior quarterback Tyler Wilson.
    Prediction: Arkansas 31-17

Kentucky at #14 Georgia (12:21 PM, SEC Network): Georgia played its most complete game of the season against Auburn last week. They dominated in every facet of the game and cruised to a blowout win. If the Bulldogs do not slip up this week they will win the SEC East and get to be in the SEC Championship against either Alabama, Arkansas, or LSU, depending on how LSU does against Arkansas next week. They won't slip up.
    Prediction: Georgia 35-7

#1 LSU at Ole Miss (7:00 PM, ESPN): LSU needs to win this week and next week against Arkansas to clinch the SEC West. They will not have any problem winning this week against the worst team in the SEC.
    Prediction: LSU 42-3

Samford at #24 Auburn (1:00 PM, PPV): There actually is an interesting story line in this game. Samford's offensive coordinator is Rhett Lashlee, who was a graduate assistant under Auburn's offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn for a number of years including last year's National Championship run. Lashlee is trying to run his version of Gus' hurry up no huddle offense and has improved Samford's offense by gaining almost 50 more yards and 12 more points per game this year than in 2010. However, Samford has no chance against an Auburn team looking to avenge last week's embarrassment against UGA.
   Prediction: Auburn 42-13

The Rest
Furman at Florida (1:00 PM, PPV): Florida 35-7
Georgia Southern at #3 Alabama (2:00 PM, PPV): Alabama 56-3
*All Times Eastern


Lucas's Week 11 Record: 5-2
Lucas's Season Record: 71-12

A Look at Week 11 in the SEC

    The game of the century ended up being the tale of three field goal kickers. Alabama missed four field goals and ended up losing in overtime. I said last week that I expected the game to be low scoring, but even I did not expect it to be that low scoring. However, it was the defensive battle one would expect in a game featuring two elite defenses. Alabama had plenty of chances to win the game, but made a few critical mistakes that cost them the game.
    My predictions were 6-1 last week with the only mistake being in the Ole Miss-Kentucky game. Kentucky's freshman quarterback Maxwell Smith made his first start and gave Kentucky needed improvement in the passing game, throwing for 283 yards and two touchdowns leading them to a 30-13 win. Overall, I'm having a decent season. I improved to 66-10 on the year after Week 10, and I am currently ahead of both ESPN SEC bloggers. Without the three non-SEC games that I predicted I am 64-9. In comparison, ESPN's Chris Low is 61-12 and Edward Aschoff is 63-10. Let's hope I can keep the lead this week.

    On to Week 11...

Game of the Week

Sophomore QB Clint Moseley is the key to
Auburn's success against Georgia

#20 Auburn at #15 Georgia (3:30 PM, CBS): Auburn has had two weeks to prepare for "The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry" and it's not exactly like Georgia was challenged in its lopsided victory against New Mexico State last week. Both teams will be geared up and ready to go for this game. Georgia is looking to avenge the 49-31 beat-down it suffered against Auburn last year, and Auburn would like to add another game to its lead in the all time series, which currently stands at 54-52-8 in Auburn's favor. Georgia has the possibility of clinching the SEC East with a win and a South Carolina loss this week. They key to this game could be both teams' abilities to stop the run. Auburn's game plan against virtually every team is to get in a rhythm running the ball early and often. Georgia has the most success when it can establish the run and QB Aaron Murray can work  off of play action.
     Georgia's defense has been impressive as of late, but the level of competition it has been going up against is debatable. Aaron Murray has been hot lately as well, throwing for ten touchdowns in his last three games. However, the biggest question mark and factor in this week's outcome will be the performance of Auburn's sophomore quarterback Clint Moseley. As he goes, so do the Tigers. Auburn won't be able to run the ball at will on the Bulldogs' stout run defense and will have to rely on Moseley to play well and threaten UGA through the air. Moseley looked decent against LSU when he was given time to throw and improved against Ole Miss completing 12 of 15 passes, four going for touchdowns. Junior wide receiver Emory Black was back from injury against Ole Miss after missing the past three and a half games and made a dramatic difference in the success of Auburn's passing offense. Blake racked up five catches for 71 yards and a touchdown. He gives the Tigers the ability to stretch the field that they greatly missed in his absence. I think Moseley will build on his Ole Miss performance and lead Auburn to a close victory. Also, don't forget that head coach Gene Chizik is undefeated at Auburn in games decided by four points or less. He will add another win to that column this weekend.
    Prediction: Auburn 24-21

The Others
Florida at #13 South Carolina (12:00 PM, CBS): South Carolina needs a victory this weekend to insure that it doesn't get knocked out of the race for the SEC East division title. Florida is coming off a game where the Gators were able to just squeak by Vanderbilt. Both teams have struggled on offense as of late. South Carolina's QB Connor Shaw suffered a concussion last week against Arkansas and Florida's QB John Brantley is not 100% right now. This game will come down to who plays better on defense, and there is no doubt that South Carolina is the answer to that question. South Carolina will be able to pull out the victory with tough defensive play.
    Prediction: South Carolina 24-17

Tennessee at #8 Arkansas (6:00 PM, ESPN2): Tennesse has really struggled on offense since Tyler Bray went down with an injury against Georgia. The Vols were able to beat MTSU 24-0 last week, but simply do not have the firepower to match up against a potent Arkansas offense. Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson is coming off one of his best games of the season throwing for 299 yards and two touchdowns against a good South Carolina defense. One of Tennessee's biggest weaknesses is its secondary, and that will be a big problem when facing an Arkansas passing attack that is ranked 9th best in the nation.
    Prediction: Arkansas: 31-10

Kentucky at Vanderbilt (12:21 PM, SEC Network): Kentucky got their first SEC win of the season against Ole Miss last week and looked to be somewhat improved on offense. Vanderbilt has played a number of close games in the SEC this season, but just hasn't been able to quite get over the hump. Junior quarterback Jordan Rodgers has been playing well, and he will get his first SEC win as a starter this week.
    Prediction: Vanderbilt 28-20


#3 Alabama at Mississippi State (7:45 PM, ESPN): Alabama is going to be angry after losing its grip on a BCS National Championship berth last week. I expect their defense to come out and be the suffocating unit we have come to know over the course of this year. Mississippi State will most likely try to replicate part of LSU's game plan by running the option to the outside with dual threat quarterback Chris Relf. LSU had success getting to the perimeter against Alabama's big linebackers, and MSU's personnel suits that style of offense as well. However, that will not be near enough.
    Prediction: Alabama 31-13


Louisiana Tech at Ole Miss (7:30 PM, CSS): Ole Miss announced this week that head coach Houston Nutt will not be retained after the season. As a result, this game could go one of two ways. Either they will be completely inspired to win for the coach that recruited them to come to Ole Miss, or they will be totally distracted by the announcement of his imminent dismissal. My guess is the former. Ole Miss will win, but it will be close.
    Prediction: Ole Miss 28-24

Western Kentucky at #1 LSU (7:00 PM, ESPNU): LSU may have clinched a spot in the National Championship by defeating Alabama, but they do have one more difficult test in the final game of the season against Arkansas. However, they should cruise until then as they have Western Kentucky and SEC bottom-feeder Ole Miss over the next two weeks.
    Prediction: LSU 44-6
*All Times Eastern

Lucas's Week 10 Record: 6-1
Lucas's Season Record: 66-10

A Look at Week 10 in the SEC

   My picks were 5-0 last week. Georgia beat Florida in the game of the week and were able to stay alive in the race for the SEC East, but will need some help from other SEC teams to overtake South Carolina and reach the SEC Championship game. South Carolina pulled out a win in Knoxville, which is never an easy task, and Arkansas scraped by a surging Vanderbilt team.

   Now on to Week 10. Everything has been building up to this week, and it's finally here...

Game of the Week

Nick Saban (left) and Les Miles (right) have been preparing for
this epic showdown all season

#1 LSU at #2 Alabama (8:00 PM, CBS): Clash of the Titans. It's what we have all been waiting for. This game has been billed as the "game of the century" by many. While I don't necessarily agree with that, it definitely is one of the most anticipated regular season matchups in recent memory. There are reports that media credential requests are currently around 600. That is a huge number. Alabama's press box only seats around 150. That goes to show the importance and hype of this monstrous meeting of two SEC giants. In essence, this game could be considered the de facto national championship, as whichever team wins this game will have a good chance to go undefeated the rest of the way until the actual National Championship in January. Alabama has one big edge being the home field team. These teams to be very evenly matched as they both feature similar strengths. Both are very strong on defense (Alabama is ranked first nationally in total defense, LSU is fourth), and both feature solid rushing attacks (both are in the top 30 in rushing yards per game). However, LSU seems to be more complete. With two seasoned quarterbacks in seniors Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson leading the way, LSU's offense has the edge over Alabama. Couple strong quarterback play with talented receivers Reuben Randle and Odell Beckham, LSU can throw on you if they need to, and I don't have as much confidence in Alabama's ability to do that. I think this game will show just how much the Crimson Tide misses Julio Jones and what he was able to do for the Tide's offense that they lack this year. Their only big time receiver is Marquis Maze, who will be the focus of the vaunted LSU secondary.
   LSU is also more tested than Alabama. LSU dismantled Oregon in the season opener, who by the way are 7-1 on the season and ranked #8 in the nation. They also beat West Virginia, Florida, and Auburn easily. Alabama has signature wins over Penn State, Arkansas, and Florida, and although they are impressive, they are not as quite as impressive as LSU's victories.
    Alabama does have a very good running back in junior Heisman candidate Trent Richardson. Richardson is tied with Auburn's Michael Dyer as the top rusher in the SEC and has looked quite impressive over the course of the season. However, LSU has two quality backs in sophomores Michael Ford and Spencer Ware who will run over and around you at any given moment.
    I chose LSU to win the National Championship this summer, and there is no way I am deviating from that prediction now. I expect this game to be a defensive slug-fest and very low scoring, but "The Hat" Les Miles will find a way to pull out the victory in then end.
    Prediction: LSU 17-13

Top Tier Games
#9 South Carolina at #7 Arkansas (7:15 PM, ESPN): This game features a top ten matchup with two teams that have been somewhat struggling as of late. South Carolina was able to eek out wins against Mississippi State and Tennesse, and now no longer have running back Marcus Lattimore. However, freshman Brandon Wilds filled in admirably in his absence last week against Tennessee and was able to run for 137 yards on 28 carries. He is no Marcus Lattimore, but Wilds is definitely a threat to an Arkansas defense that is giving up 131 yards per game on the ground. Arkansas narrowly escaped getting beat by both Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, two teams who would seem to be over-matched against Arkansas on paper. However, expect Arkansas to play up to their competition this week.This will be South Carolina's first real test without Lattimore and it will not go as well as the game against Tennessee. Home field advantage gives Arkansas the edge, and the Razorbacks will be able to pull out a victory against the Gamecocks.
    Prediction: Arkansas 27-13

Vanderbilt at Florida (12:15 PM, SEC Network): Vanderbilt has played its last two SEC opponents, Georgia and Arkansas, very close and look to be a team that is on the rise. Junior quarterback Jordan Rodgers, while not throwing for a lot of yards, has averaged just over 80 yards rushing since he took over as the starter three games ago. Junior running back Zac Stacy has added the running threat that Vandy needed and has really come on strong, averaging 141 yards rushing over the last three games. However, Florida had running back Jeff Demps and quarterback John Brantley return from injury against UGA last week, and both made and a noticeable difference in the production of the offense. Demps had a long catch for 72 yards and Brantley threw for 245 yards and a touchdown. Those two re-additions combined with Florida's home field advantage in The Swamp will allow them to win this game.
    Prediction: Florida 24-14

The Rest
Ole Miss at Kentucky (3:30 PM, ESPNU): The battle for the worst team in the SEC is on. Ole Miss has looked somewhat better the last two weeks, playing Auburn close in the first half and requiring Arkansas to come back from a 17 point deficit to beat them. Kentucky has not showed any glimmer of hope at any point in their season.
    Prediction: Ole Miss 21-17


New Mexico State at #18 Georgia (12:30 PM, CSS): Georgia had to suspend tailbacks Isaiah Crowell, Carlton Thomas, and Ken Malcome after all three failed drug tests and also have tailback Richard Samuel out with an injury. That only leaves former walk-on Brandon Harton and walk-on Kyle Karempelis as the only ones left to handle all of the carries. But it is New Mexico State after all, so that won't matter. 
     Prediction: Georgia 31-13


Middle Tennesse at Tennessee (7 PM, FSS): This game will be a much better scenario for freshman quarterback Justin Worley to get his feet under him than last week against South Carolina turned out to be. The Vols turned to Worley for the first time last week, and he completed 10 of 26 passes for 105 yards and two interceptions. Hopefully he will be able to find more of a rhythm against the Blue Raiders as the Vols roll to victory.
     Prediction: Tennessee 31-13


UT Martin at Mississippi State (7:30 PM, CSS): Mississippi State was able to get their first SEC victory against Kentucky last week, but still need a few more victories to become bowl eligible. Most likely the Egg Bowl against Ole Miss will determine whether or not the Bulldogs have a postseason this year. MSU wins easily over UT Martin as they inch closer to a bowl berth.
    Prediction: Mississippi State 34-16
*All Times Eastern

Lucas's Week 9 Record: 5-0
Lucas's Season Record: 60-9


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