Monday, June 27, 2011

Russell Wilson Says No: What Now for Auburn?

Former NC State QB Russell Wilson has decided to transfer to Wisconsin instead of Auburn. He had a tough decision between continuing to pursue his pro baseball career with the Asheville Tourists, or give football another go with either Auburn or Wisconsin. Early on it seemed as though he would choose football as he visited both Auburn and Wisconsin and was only batting in the low .200's for the Tourists this season. Both sides seemed to be hearing he was going their way, but in the end, Wilson decided on Wisconsin.

So that leaves one major question for the Tigers; who is going to play quarterback for them next season? They have three QBs on the roster and at this point it seems as though they could go in any direction. So which direction will they go?

Barrett Trotter looked to be the front runner early on. He has the most experience, albeit limited, of the group. However, according to reports, Clint Moseley was the more impressive of the two during spring practice. Neither of the two really shined in the spring game, and so it begs the question, how did they look during the rest of the closed spring practices? They clearly didn't impress Offensive Coordinator Gus Malzahn enough, as he decided to throw Auburn's hat in the ring for Russell Wilson.

Could Kiehl Frazier be Auburn's
answer at quarterback?
However, the x-factor and unknown possibility is true freshman Kiehl Frazier who enrolled at Auburn in early June. Kiehl was recruited by Malzahn very early on in high school, and played in Springdale, AR for Shiloh Christian. If you know Gus Malzahn's story you know that he was noticed at Sprindgdale High School where he was the head coach before Houston Nutt hired him to be Offensive Coordinator for Arkansas. Prior to Malzahn's stint at Springdale he coached at, you guessed it, Shiloh Christian. Frazier's coach at Shiloh Christian, Josh Floyd, also played QB for Malzahn when he was at Shiloh. Frazier has been running Floyd's version of Malzahn's offense throughout his entire high school career, and thus comes in already knowing the offensive system very well. That gives him a leg up as opposed to your normal freshman QB. Not to mention, Malzahn has not been opposed to starting true freshmen quarterbacks in the past. While coaching at Arkansas, he started true freshman QB Mitch Mustain, and managed to go 8-0 with Mustain as the starting signal caller that year.

Obviously, the one thing that Kiehl will have to get used to is the speed of the SEC game. However, if Malzahn starts him from day one, he will have a chance to get used to the college game against a lesser opponent in Utah State before being thrown into the fire against Mississippi State for his first SEC game. Granted, there will be a learning curve, but Frazier knows Malzahn's offense well and Malzahn is very confident in him.

If Auburn is looking to rebuild towards 2012 anyways, they should give Frazier the experience he needs this year to be a real threat next season. And who knows, he might impress if given the chance this year. My prediction for Auburn's season is an 8-4 record.




Thursday, June 9, 2011

Should Venters Replace Kimbrel as the Braves Closer?















Craig Kimbrel blew another save last night against the Marlins. He came into the game with a 2-0 lead and gave up 2 runs before striking out the side. The question everyone wants to know after another poor performance by Kimbrel is: Should Jonny Venters replace Craig Kimbrel as the closer? In my opinion yes, but it's not an easy decision. 


Kimbrel has set the record for the most saves before the All-Star break by a rookie with 18. He has looked good at times this season, but has rarely finished off the game with a clean inning. Kimbrel has an ERA of 3.19, which ranks 42nd among National League relievers with a minimum of 20 innings pitched.  His WHIP is at 1.29 is ranked 44th among National League relievers, which is even higher than Scott Linebrink (ranked 41st) who has pitched poorly for the Braves this season. And as Braves beat writer David O'Brien pointed out, Kimbrel has a 4.70 ERA with 3 blown saves in his last 16 appearances, pushing his blown save total up to 5 on the year. Simply put, he hasn't been as effective as the Braves need him to be. Especially since the Braves have not been scoring many runs as of late.

Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez simply chalks it up to a "learning curve" as Kimbrel is learning how to effectively become a closer in his first full season in the bigs. However, if you take a look at Venters numbers, you can't deny that he deserves a shot to be the guy that gets the call in the 9th inning. He has been the nastiest reliever in the entire MLB with that power slider, and of course, the fastball that rushes up to the plate in the mid 90s. He has the best ERA in the MLB with a miniscule 0.48, and his whip ranks third among all MLB relievers at 0.74. Oh, and don't forget, he has yet to give up a home run while opposing batters have a slugging percentage of just .165 against him. Needless to say, Venters has been virtually unhittable in just about all of his majors leading 34 appearances, and he has been the best reliever in all of baseball. Buster Olney even mentioned on Baseball Tonight that Venters should be a Cy Young candidate to this point in the season, and I completely agree.

So I say, why not give Venters a shot? Maybe if Fredi shifts Kimbrel to the setup spot it gives him a little bit more confidence by taking away the pressure that closing brings with it. And I don't think there is any doubt that Venters can handle the 9th, as he has come in during pressure situations and dominated time and time again. Some say that Kimbrel is the closer of the future with his high 90s fastball, and you don't want to mess that up by removing him from the position in just his rookie season. But he did not seem to care when there was talk in spring training about the two pitchers sharing saves duties, and I think he can handle it while realizing that Venters has been purely dominant all season. To me, it does not make sense why you would not put the best reliever in baseball in the most important relief spot, and I think that Fredi should make the change.

Monday, June 6, 2011

My Summer SEC East Predictions

It was not easy deciding the SEC East. The West is much stronger than the East once again this year, and the best team in the East would probably amount to only third or fourth best in the West. However, I do think the East will have a better season overall than they did in 2010.

Look for this years' key game in the East to come on September 10th, when South Carolina travels to Athens to take on the Georgia Bulldogs. The outcome of this game may very well determine who represents the East in the SEC Championship game.

Garcia needs to stay out
of trouble for USC to return
to the SEC title game
1. South Carolina - South Carolina returns top talent in first team All-SEC running back Marcus Lattimore, and first team All-SEC wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey. If Stephen Garcia can keep his off the field problems under control, look for USC to make it back to the SEC Championship again this year. That's a big if, however. Alshon Jeffrey is by far the best receiver in the SEC this year. Garcia will lean on him heavily after losing their second leading receiver Tori Gurley to the draft. The key to this team is Garcia. If he can keep his head on straight then USC will be the front runner to return to the championship. Chris Low of ESPN writes he will only get one more chance after five separate suspensions, but the Spurrier thinks he has made a "life-change commitment." If that's the case they will be the team to beat in the East.

Crowell is the key to the
Bulldogs' season in 2011.
2. Georgia - Mark Richt is likely on the hot seat entering his 11th season as the head coach of the Bulldogs. The UGA faithful has their patience is running thin after a few mediocre seasons by Georgia standards. Richt could just be in luck as he returns a talented core group of players on this years squad. Headlining the returnees is RSo. QB Aaron Murray, who could very easily be considered the best signal caller in all of the SEC. Two questions that will make or break Georgia's season: Who will step up and fill the huge void that WR AJ Green left? and Can Isaiah Crowell handle the load as a freshman tailback in the SEC? The dogs will likely have to use a myriad of pass-catchers to help make up for the loss of AJ Green to the NFL, including TE Orson Charles. Orson Charles was picked by many to be the top tight end in the league this year, and he will likely have to be just that for Murray to be successful. Georgia's top two tailbacks from last year may both not be returning this year. Washaun Ealey decided to transfer and Caleb King is rumored to be academically ineligible. Thus, the burden falls squarely on the shoulders of five-star freshman Isaiah Crowell. Some say he is just as talented as Lattimore, who dominated for South Carolina last year as a freshman. And Crowell will have to at least come close for Georgia to be successful. Georgia has as much potential as anyone in the East this year, but also have just as many question marks. If some of those get turned into answers look for them to challenge USC for the SEC East title.

3. Tennessee - Tennessee looks to build on a 2010 where they finished the season 6-7. The Vols will have true sophomore Tyler Bray returning at QB who showed flashes of brilliance as a true freshman last season. However, UT will lose their top three receivers from the 2010 team in Gerald Jones, Denarius Moore, and Luke Stocker. Sophomores Da'Rick Rogers and Justin Hunter will have to step up in a big way for the Vols to show improvement this season. They do return one of the SEC's best running backs in senior Tauren Poole. Poole figure to be the bell-cow this year after bursting on the scene with 1,034 yards and 11 touchdowns during the 2010 season. Poole was somewhat of an unknown prior to 2010, as he had never rushed for more than 86 yards in either of his first two season, but proved to be a very capable ball carrier including six separate games where he rushed for over 100 yards. Tennessee will need to lean on the running game in order to have an improved 2011 season. Look for Tyler Bray to improve and develop along with his young wide-outs, although the Volunteer nation may want to wait until 2012 before they anticipate a break-out season for their football team.

New Florida Head Coach
Will Muschamp
4. Florida - Urban Meyer stepped down as the Gators coach after a successful tenure as head coach there. He brought to them two national titles, a heisman, and three appearances in the SEC Championship Game. Former LSU, Auburn, and Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp was hired to take his place, and Muschamp brought along with him former Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weis to coach the offense. Weis has been successful as an offensive coordinator on the NFL level with the Kansas City Cheifs and New England Patriots, but you have to figure there will be some growing pains as he will change the offense from a spread style that Urban Meyer implemented so well for so many years to the pro-style offense. That brings an entire change in philosophy and a difference in the type of personnel needed to run that style, and that is why they will not be able to finish higher than fourth in the East this year. Give Muschamp some time though, and he should have those Gators at the top once again.

5. Kentucky - Kentucky showed some promise last year under new coach Joker Phillips taking eventual National Champion Auburn down to the wire and beating South Carolina in Lexington. However, this year the Cats will have to figure out how to make their offense work after losing talented Mr. Do-It-All Randall Cobb and star running back Derrick Locke. They also lose starting QB Mike Hartline, but replace him with the very capable junior Morgan Newton. With the loss of so many key play-makers the Wildcats won't be able to finish any higher than fifth in the East, but may be able to eek out a 6-6 season for a bowl game appearance if they are lucky.

Likely a Vanderbilt fan.
6. Vanderbilt - Vanderbilt is well, Vanderbilt. They have only been to a bowl game twice in the last twenty years. After an off-season coaching search where they almost landed Auburn's talented offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, the Commodores settled on Maryland offensive coordinator James Franklin. They hope he will fix their offense, but his own Maryland offense ranked 80th in the nation last year. A new coach doesn't bring any change to their fortunes this year. Vanderbilt will miss the post season once again and finish with the worst record in the SEC.



That concludes my preview for the SEC East. Just for fun, here are my rankings for the entire SEC:
1. LSU
2. Arkansas
3. Alabama
4. South Carolina
5. Georgia
6. Auburn
7. Mississippi State
8. Tennessee
9. Florida
10. Ole Miss
11. Kentucky
12. Vanderbilt

Hope you enjoyed the latest installment to Lucas On Sports. Thanks for reading!

Oh, and in case you missed it, check out my West predictions here.

Thursday, June 2, 2011

My Summer SEC West Predictions

Hello Everyone!

Welcome to Lucas On Sports. I decided to try my hand out in the blogosphere and I figured, hey, why not blog about sports? After all, I am more knowledgeable about sports than any other topic, and that includes my current job (Sssshhh don't tell my boss), but I have to admit that's not saying a whole lot. I plan to talk college sports, Braves baseball, with a little NFL and NBA sprinkled in. I hope you enjoy it.

With my initial post I am going to give you my predictions for the SEC West for the upcoming 2011 season. I will have my predictions for the East later.

So here it goes:


LSU has all the makings of a contender
1. LSU - The bayou tigers will be in the SEC championship this year, and ultimately, the BCS national championship game. They lost only twice all of last year and recruited a talented quarterback in JuCo transfer Zach Mettenberger. If the incumbent Jordan Jefferson falters at all then LSU has a talented back up to take his place. However, it appears right now as if it's Jefferson's job to lose. Coach Les Miles said, "Jordan Jefferson is the starting quarterback --- I think he's had the best spring since he's been here." If LSU shows any improvement at the QB position then their defense will take them along for a special season.

2. Arkansas - Arkansas is returning some very talented players from a team that made it to a BCS bowl last year. Those returning include RB Knile Davis, who was arguably a top three running back in the SEC last year, and excellent receivers Jarius Wright, Greg Childs, and Joe Adams, who make up what I believe to be the best receiving trio in the SEC. They surround new starting QB Tyler Wilson, who came in for an injured Ryan Mallett in a hostile Jordan Hare stadium last year and went 25-34 for 332 yards and 4 TDs against the eventual national champs. It would not surprise me to see them win the West if Tyler Wilson can progress quickly.

3. Alabama - Alabama has a good bit of talent with RB Trent Richardson and WR Marquis Maze returning among others, but I don't know that they have what it takes at quarterback to challenge for the SEC West title. AJ McCarron was highly recruited out of high school, but did not impress in limited action last year. Alabama boasted the fifth best scoring defense in the nation last year and I think that will help them as they break in a new QB.

Could Wilson change Auburn's fate?
4. Auburn - The defending national champions will have trouble repeating as SEC champions this year after losing over 25 key contributors from last years team. They will lean heavily on RB Mike Dyer, but the tough SEC road schedule will take its toll. Auburn plays South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU, and Georgia all on the road. Talk about a gauntlet. However, former NC State QB Russell Wilson is looking to transfer and may end up at Auburn after visiting last week. If he does come to Auburn he would be eligible immediately and AU would move up to #2 on my list. Russell Wilson had an impressive year for NC State last year amassing 3,663 yards passing while throwing 28 touchdowns. He would immediately be a top 3 quarterback in the SEC. Even if they don't get Wilson, look for Auburn to return to the SEC championship in 2012 after putting together several solid recruiting classes in a row.

5. Mississippi State - Mississippi State had a solid year in 2010 under second year head coach Dan Mullen going 9-4 with 4 SEC wins. However, their problem in 2011 is the same as last year. The SEC West is once again very strong at the top, and they just don't have the talent to compete consistently week in and week out. Also, unfortunately for them, if Mullen has a few more seasons like he did last year I don't think we will stay for very long there. He was rumored to be a leading candidate for the Florida job last year, and if another job like that comes open again this year he will be out the door. It's just not easy to win in the SEC West if you are MSU because of the difficulty recruiting to that area and the strength of division opponents year after year.

The new Ole Miss Black Bear won't
help them win many games this year.
6. Ole Miss - What can you say about the Rebs? Not much, and I think that's exactly what lands them in last place in the West again this year. I see a similar showing to 2010 where they finished 4-8 and 1-7 in the conference. The Jeremiah Masoli experiment failed last year and I don't expect anything to change that would make them any better this year.







So thanks everyone for reading (if anyone does). I hope this blog will be entertaining and insightful as it evolves. Feel free to leave any comments or suggestions below.

Coming up next: My Summer SEC East Predictions