Thursday, August 23, 2012

Announcement

I have decided to transfer this blog from the blogspot address to a new WordPress page. Please follow my blog over there at lucasonsports.wordpress.com. Thanks!

2012 SEC Predictions

After contemplating the idea of postponing the blog for a year based on my busy schedule while trying to finish out grad school, I have decided to bring it back this season. However, it may have to be an abbreviated version of the content that I provided last year. I still plan to bring you weekly predictions and insight, but it may just have to be a little toned down. I'll do my best to still make it good enough that you will want to read it each week. Without further ado, here are my SEC predictions for the 2012 football season.

 SEC East:
Aaron Murray will try to lead his team back to the
SEC Championship
  1. Georgia - The Bulldogs have a lot of solid pieces returning. That combined with the easiest schedule in all of the SEC will allow them to return to the SEC Championship game.
  2. South Carolina - South Carolina gets running back Marcus Lattimore back from injury which will be huge this year. He is by far the best back in the SEC and maybe the NCAA. However, they will slip up in a few games they should win in prototypical Gamecock fashion.
  3. Tennessee - I was tempted to put UT at #2, but the news of Da'Rick Rogers being suspended today leaves too many questions for the Vols. Losing Rogers will be a big blow, as he has NFL talent at wide receiver. Junior college transfer Cordarelle Patterson will have to step up big at wide receiver for the Vols to finish above third in the East.
  4. Florida - Florida could very well exceed my expectations this year, but I just get the sense that they are still in rebuilding mode and have a ton of question marks on offense.
  5. Missouri - Missouri faces a tough early season schedule with Georgia in Week 2 and South Carolina in Week 4. They will struggle in their first season in the SEC.
  6. Vanderbilt - James Franklin has built a lot of momentum for the VU program, but they just aren't quite there yet.
  7. Kentucky - Kentucky is still Kentucky.
SEC West:
New LSU QB Zach Mettenberger could be the difference this
year
  1. LSU - Yes I'm predicting the same SEC Championship as last year. Is that likely? Maybe not. Does that scare me from picking it anyways? Nope. New starting quarterback Zach Mettenberger will make a difference for the Tigers this year. Tyrann Mathieu being kicked off the team will be a loss, but if any team has the depth to absorb it, it's LSU.
  2. Alabama - Alabama has a lot of great pieces remaining and never struggle to replace their outgoing players. It really is a toss up between the Tide and LSU but it's really hard for any team to repeat. I have a better feeling about LSU this year than I do Alabama.
  3. Arkansas - How big is it for Arkansas to lose head coach Bobby Petrino? Big enough that if they still had him I probably would have them in the top two. However, I still think they have enough talent to finish third in the West which is a big accomplishment these days.
  4. Auburn - Auburn has as much potential as any team this year, but just doesn't have the experience yet. They will be starting 2-3 true or redshirt freshmen on the offensive line which is never a good thing in the SEC no matter how talented they are. They also have yet to name a starting quarterback, but by all accounts it will be Kiehl Frazier under center against Clemson next Saturday. Frazier has a lot of potential, but only very limited game experience. (Update 1:45 PM: Kiehl Frazier has been named Auburn's starting QB, as expected.)
  5. Texas A&M - This will be the Aggies first year in the SEC. Texas A&M has a new coach in former Houston head man Kevin Sumlin. They will be installing the high flying offense that set many records at Houston the past few years which should be entertaining. However, the Aggies will find out the hard way what it's like to go through the weekly grind of the SEC.
  6. Mississippi State - Will Mississippi State ever beat anyone worthwhile other than Ole Miss? They may eventually, but at this point they don't have the talent to compete at a high level in this conference.
  7. Ole Miss - It will take a while for new head coach Hugh Freeze to get this ship turned around. He's making some strides, but it's going to be a long process.
Want to look back at my SEC predictions from last year? Here they are:
SEC East
SEC West

Thursday, February 2, 2012

The Saban Rules

Coaches are always excited when a top prospect commits to their school. What happens when a long time commitment finds out his offer is no longer valid from the school of his choice? Unfortunately, two prospects from Alabama found that out this recruiting season.

RB Justin Taylor has been committed to Alabama for nearly a year (Photo courtesy of 247sports.com)
Justin Taylor
As reported by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Alabama coach Nick Saban told one of his earliest 2012 commitments, running back Justin Taylor, that he no longer had an offer from the Tide. Saban instead offered Taylor a "grayshirt" offer, which means that Taylor would wait until the spring to enroll so that he would not affect the limited scholarship number for this 2012 signing class. Taylor was the Tide's 7th commitment for the 2012 class. So what happened to suddenly change the situation? Taylor injured his knee prior to his senior season, and Alabama started to get interest from recruits that are more highly touted. Therefore, Saban decided to process the long time Alabama commitment just weeks before signing day, leaving Taylor in a rough spot. Saban had gone back on his word just a month prior to signing day, and Taylor was taken completely by surprise. Taylor ended up signing with Kentucky on signing day. Read the original article that broke the Justin Taylor story from the AJC here.

Darius Philon
Darius Philon, a defensive tackle from Vigor High School (Prichard, AL), suffered a similar fate yesterday. Philon put on an Alabama hat at his school's signing day ceremony, but rushed away shortly after while not talking to any media. He could no longer attend Alabama even if he wanted to. Philon committed to Alabama in September, just to have Saban leave him standing at the altar just prior to National Signing Day. Alabama had to make room for another top guy and Philon was the one chosen to get his scholarship axed. His high school coach, Kerry Stevenson, blamed it on the system rather than Saban's classlessness. "He had the world snatched from up under him," Stevenson commented to the Press-Register of Philon. "I'm pretty sure he's wondering, 'Why me?' On a number of occasions, [Alabama] stated how much they don't want to lose him. They got put in a bind. I can see where it could happen, especially with this being the first year of the SEC putting in a stipulation like this." Shame on his coach for not sticking up for the kid. Every other school in the SEC had the same limitations, yet Alabama was the only one to treat kids this way. After having his heart crushed by Alabama, Philon ended up signing with Arkansas.

Prior to the 2010 signing day Saban said in article written by Auburn Undercover's Phillip Marshall that a "commitment is a commitment." He went on to say, "We tell guys when they commit that we want the recruiting to be over or we really don’t want them to commit. If you’re not really ready to stop recruiting, then you aren’t really ready to commit, because committing means you are coming to that school." I guess it doesn't work in the other direction, does it Coach? Hypocrisy.

Yesterday Saban said, "Every coach I know has the best interests of players in mind." I'm pretty sure that Justin Taylor and Darius Philon would not agree with that statement. In addition to often reneging scholarship offers to recruits, Saban also often awards medical hardship scholarships to players that have slipped down the depth chart. These are just a few examples of many ways Saban works his college program like it's an NFL team, and treats his players like they are getting paid millions to play rather than on a football scholarship to get an education from an institution of higher learning.

Saban was asked about offering recruits four year scholarships rather than the one year renewable scholarships that are currently common place. Saban quipped that when that was done decades ago that it created "lawsuits galore." Is that the reason? Or is it because Saban wouldn't be able to manicure his roster however he so desires? Currently Auburn and Florida are the only two SEC teams that are offering multi-year scholarships, and I say good for them. Way to stand up for your commitments to these student-athletes.

Rob Pate, a former Auburn safety, had this to say about the situation, "I think what Saban did to two long-time Bama commits was disgraceful, soulless, and infinitley hyprocritical. It should be reported on ad nausem and shouted from the roof tops for recruits to never forget. This kid's dream moment, all the hard work he's put into it, the day it all comes to fruition before your family and friends, and it gets [destroyed] by Nick Saban. Classless, reprehensible, disgusting. My kid would never play for a person cut from cloth like that. Sickening!" I agree with Rob. There is no way I would want my kid to play for a coach with that kind of moral character. He will turn his back on you as soon as you no longer fit into his "business" plans.

Is Saban a good football coach? Sure. There's no arguing that. He has won two national championships in the last three years. But let's not allow that to hide the unethical decisions he's making behind the scenes that affect the future of 18-22 year old kids.

Monday, January 23, 2012

The 2011 SEC Season in Review

Alabama was crowned BCS National Champions
First of all,  I would like to apologize for how long it has taken me to get to this post. I have planned to do it for a while, but soon after college football season ended my schedule got cranked up and busy. So here it is...

Let's take a look back at the season that was in the SEC. In June I made predictions for the final standings in both the SEC East and the SEC West. My biggest projection success was predicting LSU to win the SEC and win the SEC West, which they did. However, I also believed that the Tigers would win the National Championship, but they did not. Alabama was able to sneak into the title game and upset the Bayou Bengals. Here were my full predicted standings:
West:
1. LSU
2. Arkansas
3. Alabama
4. Auburn
5. Mississippi State
6. Ole Miss
East:
1. South Carolina
2. Georgia
3: Tennessee 
4. Florida
5. Kentucky
6. Vanderbilt

As you can see, I did pretty well with my West predictions, the only mistake was flip-flopping Arkansas and Alabama. Arkansas losing Knile Davis before the season was a huge blow, and Alabama's defense was much more dominant than I expected, which allowed the Tide to finish second in the West and win the National Championship.

The East, on the other hand, was somewhat of a disaster. Georgia ended up winning the East, and South Carolina was really hurt by losing its star running back Marcus Lattimore in the middle of the season. The rest of the standings were pretty far off. To me, Tennessee was the biggest surprise, as I had them finishing third and the Vols ultimately ended up in last place. However, a lot of that had to do with injuries to QB Tyler Bray and top wide receiver Justin Hunter.

I finished with a 89-19 record for the season. I had a terrible bowl season, only predicting four of the eight games correctly. However, my overall season record wasn't half bad. For comparison's sake, without the three non-conference games I had an 87-18 record. ESPN blogger Chris Low finished with an 89-16 record and Edward Aschoff finished with an 86-18 record. So at least I beat one of them!

A quick prediction for the 2012 SEC Championship game: LSU vs. Georgia. LSU is returning a lot of key contributors and are loaded once again. Georgia has a soft schedule that will be very advantageous for the Bulldogs to reach the SEC Championship against LSU for the second season in a row (note: I reserve the right to change my prediction prior to the season). 

Overall, it was a fun season of SEC blogging and I hope that you enjoyed reading it. I have had 1,376 views since last June, averaging roughly 50-60 hits per post. I also have had 48 page views from Russia and 20 from Germany. Apparently SEC football is big over there too! That all being said, thanks to all those who read now and again. I hope I have given you some entertainment and insight throughout the course of the football season. 

I'm struggling with where to go with the future direction of my blog. I don't know whether to keep doing it they way I did this season, primarily cover one team more in depth, or just add more weekly posts other than the just the SEC predictions. I would love to hear your feedback. If you don't mind, vote in the poll I created at the top of the page. Also, if you want to, leave a comment below or tweet me with your suggestions/reviews of what you thought of the blog this year and what you would like to see in the future. Thanks!