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2012 SEC Predictions

After contemplating the idea of postponing the blog for a year based on my busy schedule while trying to finish out grad school, I have decided to bring it back this season. However, it may have to be an abbreviated version of the content that I provided last year. I still plan to bring you weekly predictions and insight, but it may just have to be a little toned down. I'll do my best to still make it good enough that you will want to read it each week. Without further ado, here are my SEC predictions for the 2012 football season.

 SEC East:

Aaron Murray will try to lead his team back to the
SEC Championship

1. Georgia - The Bulldogs have a lot of solid pieces returning. That combined with the easiest schedule in all of the SEC will allow them to return to the SEC Championship game.
2. South Carolina - South Carolina gets running back Marcus Lattimore back from injury which will be huge this year. He is by far the best back in the SEC and maybe the NCAA. However, they will slip up in a few games they should win in prototypical Gamecock fashion.
3. Tennessee - I was tempted to put UT at #2, but the news of Da'Rick Rogers being suspended today leaves too many questions for the Vols. Losing Rogers will be a big blow, as he has NFL talent at wide receiver. Junior college transfer Cordarelle Patterson will have to step up big at wide receiver for the Vols to finish above third in the East.
4. Florida - Florida could very well exceed my expectations this year, but I just get the sense that they are still in rebuilding mode and have a ton of question marks on offense.
5. Missouri - Missouri faces a tough early season schedule with Georgia in Week 2 and South Carolina in Week 4. They will struggle in their first season in the SEC.
6. Vanderbilt - James Franklin has built a lot of momentum for the VU program, but they just aren't quite there yet.
7. Kentucky - Kentucky is still Kentucky.

SEC West:

New LSU QB Zach Mettenberger could be the difference this
year

1. LSU - Yes I'm predicting the same SEC Championship as last year. Is that likely? Maybe not. Does that scare me from picking it anyways? Nope. New starting quarterback Zach Mettenberger will make a difference for the Tigers this year. Tyrann Mathieu being kicked off the team will be a loss, but if any team has the depth to absorb it, it's LSU.
2. Alabama - Alabama has a lot of great pieces remaining and never struggle to replace their outgoing players. It really is a toss up between the Tide and LSU but it's really hard for any team to repeat. I have a better feeling about LSU this year than I do Alabama.
3. Arkansas - How big is it for Arkansas to lose head coach Bobby Petrino? Big enough that if they still had him I probably would have them in the top two. However, I still think they have enough talent to finish third in the West which is a big accomplishment these days.
4. Auburn - Auburn has as much potential as any team this year, but just doesn't have the experience yet. They will be starting 2-3 true or redshirt freshmen on the offensive line which is never a good thing in the SEC no matter how talented they are. They also have yet to name a starting quarterback, but by all accounts it will be Kiehl Frazier under center against Clemson next Saturday. Frazier has a lot of potential, but only very limited game experience. (Update 1:45 PM: Kiehl Frazier has been named Auburn's starting QB, as expected.)
5. Texas A&M - This will be the Aggies first year in the SEC. Texas A&M has a new coach in former Houston head man Kevin Sumlin. They will be installing the high flying offense that set many records at Houston the past few years which should be entertaining. However, the Aggies will find out the hard way what it's like to go through the weekly grind of the SEC.
6. Mississippi State - Will Mississippi State ever beat anyone worthwhile other than Ole Miss? They may eventually, but at this point they don't have the talent to compete at a high level in this conference.
7. Ole Miss - It will take a while for new head coach Hugh Freeze to get this ship turned around. He's making some strides, but it's going to be a long process.

Want to look back at my SEC predictions from last year? Here they are:
SEC East
SEC West

The Saban Rules

Coaches are always excited when a top prospect commits to their school. What happens when a long time commitment finds out his offer is no longer valid from the school of his choice? Unfortunately, two prospects from Alabama found that out this recruiting season.

Justin Taylor

As reported by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Alabama coach Nick Saban told one of his earliest 2012 commitments, running back Justin Taylor, that he no longer had an offer from the Tide. Saban instead offered Taylor a "grayshirt" offer, which means that Taylor would wait until the spring to enroll so that he would not affect the limited scholarship number for this 2012 signing class. Taylor was the Tide's 7th commitment for the 2012 class. So what happened to suddenly change the situation? Taylor injured his knee prior to his senior season, and Alabama started to get interest from recruits that are more highly touted. Therefore, Saban decided to process the long time Alabama commitment just weeks before signing day, leaving Taylor in a rough spot. Saban had gone back on his word just a month prior to signing day, and Taylor was taken completely by surprise. Taylor ended up signing with Kentucky on signing day. Read the original article that broke the Justin Taylor story from the AJC here.

Darius Philon

Darius Philon, a defensive tackle from Vigor High School (Prichard, AL), suffered a similar fate yesterday. Philon put on an Alabama hat at his school's signing day ceremony, but rushed away shortly after while not talking to any media. He could no longer attend Alabama even if he wanted to. Philon committed to Alabama in September, just to have Saban leave him standing at the altar just prior to National Signing Day. Alabama had to make room for another top guy and Philon was the one chosen to get his scholarship axed. His high school coach, Kerry Stevenson, blamed it on the system rather than Saban's classlessness. "He had the world snatched from up under him," Stevenson commented to the Press-Register of Philon. "I'm pretty sure he's wondering, 'Why me?' On a number of occasions, [Alabama] stated how much they don't want to lose him. They got put in a bind. I can see where it could happen, especially with this being the first year of the SEC putting in a stipulation like this." Shame on his coach for not sticking up for the kid. Every other school in the SEC had the same limitations, yet Alabama was the only one to treat kids this way. After having his heart crushed by Alabama, Philon ended up signing with Arkansas.

Prior to the 2010 signing day Saban said in article written by Auburn Undercover's Phillip Marshall that a "commitment is a commitment." He went on to say, "We tell guys when they commit that we want the recruiting to be over or we really don’t want them to commit. If you’re not really ready to stop recruiting, then you aren’t really ready to commit, because committing means you are coming to that school." I guess it doesn't work in the other direction, does it Coach? Hypocrisy.

Yesterday Saban said, "Every coach I know has the best interests of players in mind." I'm pretty sure that Justin Taylor and Darius Philon would not agree with that statement. In addition to often reneging scholarship offers to recruits, Saban also often awards medical hardship scholarships to players that have slipped down the depth chart. These are just a few examples of many ways Saban works his college program like it's an NFL team, and treats his players like they are getting paid millions to play rather than on a football scholarship to get an education from an institution of higher learning.

Saban was asked about offering recruits four year scholarships rather than the one year renewable scholarships that are currently common place. Saban quipped that when that was done decades ago that it created "lawsuits galore." Is that the reason? Or is it because Saban wouldn't be able to manicure his roster however he so desires? Currently Auburn and Florida are the only two SEC teams that are offering multi-year scholarships, and I say good for them. Way to stand up for your commitments to these student-athletes.

Rob Pate, a former Auburn safety, had this to say about the situation, "I think what Saban did to two long-time Bama commits was disgraceful, soulless, and infinitley hyprocritical. It should be reported on ad nausem and shouted from the roof tops for recruits to never forget. This kid's dream moment, all the hard work he's put into it, the day it all comes to fruition before your family and friends, and it gets [destroyed] by Nick Saban. Classless, reprehensible, disgusting. My kid would never play for a person cut from cloth like that. Sickening!" I agree with Rob. There is no way I would want my kid to play for a coach with that kind of moral character. He will turn his back on you as soon as you no longer fit into his "business" plans.

Is Saban a good football coach? Sure. There's no arguing that. He has won two national championships in the last three years. But let's not allow that to hide the unethical decisions he's making behind the scenes that affect the future of 18-22 year old kids.

The 2011 SEC Season in Review

Alabama was crowned BCS National Champions

First of all,  I would like to apologize for how long it has taken me to get to this post. I have planned to do it for a while, but soon after college football season ended my schedule got cranked up and busy. So here it is...

Let's take a look back at the season that was in the SEC. In June I made predictions for the final standings in both the SEC East and the SEC West. My biggest projection success was predicting LSU to win the SEC and win the SEC West, which they did. However, I also believed that the Tigers would win the National Championship, but they did not. Alabama was able to sneak into the title game and upset the Bayou Bengals. Here were my full predicted standings:

West:

1. LSU

2. Arkansas

3. Alabama

4. Auburn

5. Mississippi State

6. Ole Miss

East:

1. South Carolina

2. Georgia

3: Tennessee 

4. Florida

5. Kentucky

6. Vanderbilt

As you can see, I did pretty well with my West predictions, the only mistake was flip-flopping Arkansas and Alabama. Arkansas losing Knile Davis before the season was a huge blow, and Alabama's defense was much more dominant than I expected, which allowed the Tide to finish second in the West and win the National Championship.

The East, on the other hand, was somewhat of a disaster. Georgia ended up winning the East, and South Carolina was really hurt by losing its star running back Marcus Lattimore in the middle of the season. The rest of the standings were pretty far off. To me, Tennessee was the biggest surprise, as I had them finishing third and the Vols ultimately ended up in last place. However, a lot of that had to do with injuries to QB Tyler Bray and top wide receiver Justin Hunter.

I finished with a 89-19 record for the season. I had a terrible bowl season, only predicting four of the eight games correctly. However, my overall season record wasn't half bad. For comparison's sake, without the three non-conference games I had an 87-18 record. ESPN blogger Chris Low finished with an 89-16 record and Edward Aschoff finished with an 86-18 record. So at least I beat one of them!

A quick prediction for the 2012 SEC Championship game: LSU vs. Georgia. LSU is returning a lot of key contributors and are loaded once again. Georgia has a soft schedule that will be very advantageous for the Bulldogs to reach the SEC Championship against LSU for the second season in a row (note: I reserve the right to change my prediction prior to the season). 

Overall, it was a fun season of SEC blogging and I hope that you enjoyed reading it. I have had 1,376 views since last June, averaging roughly 50-60 hits per post. I also have had 48 page views from Russia and 20 from Germany. Apparently SEC football is big over there too! That all being said, thanks to all those who read now and again. I hope I have given you some entertainment and insight throughout the course of the football season. 

I'm struggling with where to go with the future direction of my blog. I don't know whether to keep doing it they way I did this season, primarily cover one team more in depth, or just add more weekly posts other than the just the SEC predictions. I would love to hear your feedback. If you don't mind, vote in the poll I created at the top of the page. Also, if you want to, leave a comment below or tweet me with your suggestions/reviews of what you thought of the blog this year and what you would like to see in the future. Thanks!

A Look at the SEC Bowl Season

We officially have a rematch in the National Championship game. It's going to be LSU vs. Alabama for the Rematch of the Century, I guess that's what we're going to call it. My only question is if LSU loses, do they get a do over? I'm joking of course, but personally I would have rather seen Oklahoma State get a chance in the title game. Alabama already had their chance and lost, at home nonetheless. Oklahoma State has more top wins than Alabama, dismantled a good Oklahoma team in the Big 12 Championship, and their only loss came the day after a tragic plane accident shook the entire university. But I'll get off my soap box now. 


The SEC had 9 of its 12 teams make to bowl games this year. It should have been 10 if Tennessee did not blow it against Kentucky in its last game of the year. The only teams not to make it to bowls were Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Tennessee. It has been a very good year for the conference, punctuated by two of its teams making it in the National Championship. That guarantees that the National Champion will be an SEC team for the sixth straight year.


Let's try our hand at some predictions...


Music City Bowl (Dec. 30)
Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State
Mississippi State didn't quite live up to its preseason expectations and finished the season losing four of its last five. Both teams finished 6-6 just barely making postseason play. Mississippi State has not been good this season, but appear to be the stronger team in this particular matchup. 
    Prediction: Mississippi State 21-13


Liberty Bowl (Dec. 31)
Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt will be playing in its first bowl game since 2008. That is a big accomplishment for first year coach James Franklin. Cincinnati has a better record than the Commodores, but that doesn't mean much being that Cincy plays in the weak Big East. Vanderbilt will be ready to play this game and will get its third bowl victory in its history.
    Prediction: Vanderbilt 28-24


Chick-fil-A Bowl (Dec. 31)
Virginia vs. #25 Auburn 

Freshman Tre Mason will take over RB
duties after Mike Dyer's suspension

Auburn has had a tumultuous few weeks since the end of the regular season. Defensive coordinator Ted Roof left to take the same job at UCF, offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has accepted the head coaching position at Arkansas State, and star running back Michael Dyer has been suspended indefinitely for violating team rules. Michael Dyer's absence will hurt the Tigers, but they have capable backups in homerun threats Onterrio McCalebb and Tre Mason. Gus Malzahn will coach one final game for Auburn, but Ted Roof will not be coaching this game. Instead, head coach Gene Chizik has taken over defensive coordinator duties for the time being. Look for a renewed sense of enthusiasm on defense with Chizik manning the unit and also expect Gus Malzahn to empty his playbook for one last show. The Tigers take the orange and blue showdown.
    Prediction: Auburn 31-23


Gator Bowl (Jan. 2)
Ohio State vs. Florida
Some in the media have dubbed this one the "Urban Bowl" as Urban Meyer's old team, Florida, takes on Ohio State, who he has agreed to coach next season. Florida lost its offensive coordinator Charlie Weis to a head coach position at Kansas, and the Gators will have a different coach calling plays for the bowl game. Ohio State has a lame duck staff with Urban Meyer appointed as the new head man. There are many issues with both teams, but Ohio State will take this game as the Buckeyes will play hard for Luke Fickell's last game as the head coach.
    Prediction: Ohio State 21-17


Outback Bowl (Jan. 2)

Georgia QB Aaron Murray

#17 Michigan State vs. #16 Georgia
Michigan State is coming off a ten win season and is very experienced. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has been one of the best in the Big Ten over the past few years. However, Georgia had a ten win season of its own and quarterback Aaron Murray will be looking to punctuate it with a bowl win. Both teams have top defenses, Georgia is ranked third in total defense and Michigan State is two spots below at fifth. Georgia wins in a tight one.
    Prediction: Georgia 24-21


Capital One Bowl (Jan. 2)
#20 Nebraska vs. #9 South Carolina
Both teams have shown flashes at times and have struggled at others. South Carolina QB Connor Shaw has played well in his last few games and will try to build on that success in the bowl game. Nebraska has shown the ability to run the ball, averaging 223 yards per game, but South Carolina's defense is stout and is ranked fourth in the nation in total defense. South Carolina wins this one.
    Prediction: South Carolina 24-17


Cotton Bowl (Jan. 6)
#8 Kansas State vs. #6 Arkansas
Kansas State has played well for most of this season. Dual threat quarterback Collin Klein has been a man among boys at times with 1745 yards passing, 1099 yards rushing, and 28 total touchdowns. However, Arkansas's offense is about as high powered as they come, averaging 37.4 points and 445.8 yards per game. Arkansas will be able to outscore the Wildcats and do enough on defense to earn the victory.
    Prediction: Arkansas 31-21


BCS National Championship (Jan. 9)
#2 Alabama vs. #1 LSU
The rematch for all the marbles. LSU won the much talked about first matchup 9-6 in overtime. That game featured several Alabama special teams miscues, including four missed field goals. It was played in Alabama's house, and LSU was still able to win. This game is on a neutral field and is close to Baton Rouge, but that's not likely to matter as it will probably be a 50-50 crowd split. It is always difficult to beat any team twice in a season, and especially a team as talented as Alabama. Nonetheless, I predicted LSU to be in the National Championship this past summer, and I expect them to win it now just as I did then. However, I do expect this game to be more high scoring than the first. LSU's vaunted secondary will make it difficult for Alabama QB AJ McCarron to move the ball, and their front seven will be able to corral Trent Richardson enough to win. LSU is as talented as it gets and has won its last two National Championships at the Sugar Bowl, and the Tigers will get another on January 9th. 
    Prediction: LSU 20-17




Lucas's Season Record: 85-15

A Look at the SEC Championship

Last week I was 6-2 with my predictions. Tennessee unexpectedly lost to Kentucky, which was the first time the Wildcats have beaten the Vols since 1984. This is a definite low point for the Vols program, and it has a lot of people doubting the direction it is going under head coach Derek Dooley. I also predicted that Clemson would beat South Carolina, but was incorrect. Clemson has really worn down as the season has gone on. They do not look like the same team they did at the beginning of the year, and I think they will lose to Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship.

Now let's take a look at Week 14...

The SEC Championship

Morris Claiborne leads a talented
LSU defensive backfield.

#14 Georgia at #1 LSU (4:00 PM, CBS): This game surprisingly has very little meaning in the National Championship scheme this year. BCS Experts believe that LSU is so far ahead, that even if the Tigers were to lose they would still be ranked #1 or #2 and be in the National Championship. But I doubt that is what LSU is thinking about, as they want to be able to hoist that SEC Championship trophy up on Saturday. LSU is better than Georgia in all facets of the game other than quarterback. Georgia has cruised to an SEC East title by not playing any of the top three teams in the West, and I think that has given the Bulldogs a false sense of security. Their confidence is sky high right now, but they are simply not a better team than LSU. Georgia's defense has played really well this season, and Georgia is a hot team right now. After losing their first two games, the Bulldogs have rattled off 10 wins in a row. However, as good as UGA's defense is, LSU's is that much better, and the Tigers have more depth on that side of the ball. Look for LSU to shut down Georgia's offense. The game may be close at halftime, but eventually LSU's talent and depth advantage will wear down the Bulldogs and they will pull out the win. As LSU showed against Arkansas last week, they are just that good. Look for quarterback Aaron Murray to turn the ball over against LSU's talented secondary and LSU's quarterback Jordan Jefferson will make just enough plays to get the victory.
     Prediction: LSU 27-17

Lucas's Week 13 Record: 6-2
Lucas's Season Record: 84-15

A Look at Week 13 in the SEC

Last week I was 7-1 bringing my season total to 78-13 heading into the final week of the regular season. The only game I missed was Vanderbilt-Tennessee, which had a wacky ending with a Tennessee interception in overtime ending the game. So I was close, but no cigar. There were so many upsets outside of the SEC, that the SEC West now features the #1, 2, and 3 teams in the nation. Talk about a strong division.

Week 13 brings the best slate of games that I believe we have seen all season. It's rivalry week, and so you know that there is a lot on the line for these teams. You never know what may happen in rivalry games, as unexpected upsets seem to be the norm and games are usually always close, even when the game features two teams who don't look that close on paper. It should be a great weekend...

Game of the Week

LSU QB Jordan Jefferson

#3 Arkansas at #1 LSU (Friday, 2:30 PM, CBS): Game of the Century #2? Quite possibly. It helps that LSU will have this game at home, but this is the final test of the regular season for the Bengal Tigers, and it will be a tough one. Arkansas has been playing really well lately, and have vastly improved since they played Alabama in Week 4 of the season. However, LSU is really hot as well. They were beating Ole Miss so badly last week that they decided to take a knee with five minutes left in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson has taken over the starting role from Jarrett Lee after Lee threw two picks against Alabama, and Jefferson has not looked back. However, this will be his first major test as the starter. I think he passes the test and the Tigers will hold true to my prediction that they will be in the national title game this year. Death Valley and LSU's top-two defense will be too much for the Razorbacks.
    Prediction: LSU 27-24

Top Tier Games
#2 Alabama at #24 Auburn (3:30 PM, CBS): The Iron Bowl. The biggest rivalry in sports. This game will decide bragging rights in the state of Alabama for the next 364 days. Alabama has a lot on the line, as they are looking to try and lock up the #2 spot in the polls to be able to play a rematch against LSU in the National Title game. Or, they also still have the potential to make it to the SEC championship should LSU lose to Arkansas or Georgia. I won't get into all the tie breaker rules, but just know that it is still a possibility. Auburn has not been playing well lately. The Tigers were throttled by Georgia two weeks ago, and did not have the most impressive of showings against Samford last weekend.
      However, one strength of Ted Roof's Auburn defense over the years has been the ability to stop the power run game, which Alabama relies heavily on. For example, Auburn held talented South Carolina running back Marcus Lattimore to an average 49.5 yards per game the last two years and also held Alabama to an average of 69 rushing yards per game as a team in 2009-2010. Auburn will have a similar gameplan in place in hopes to stop Heisman candidate Trent Richardson, who is averaging 125 yards rushing per game this season. That it is a tall order, but I think that they will accomplish it to an extent, making this game closer than a lot of the experts think. Nevertheless, it is going to be near impossible for an Auburn offense that has really struggled this year to score on Alabama's top ranked defense. Auburn's offensive line has just been plain bad, and that will not change this week as I expect Alabama's defensive line and linebackers to dominate the line of scrimmage. The only thing stopping this from being a total blowout is that it is the Iron Bowl, and it is at Auburn.
      Prediction: Alabama 27-10

#17 Clemson at #12 South Carolina (7:45 PM, ESPN): This should be an excellent matchup. Clemson was poised to make a run at a National Championship appearance this year before Georgia Tech derailed their dreams a few weeks ago, and then NC State unexpectedly demolished the Tigers this past week. South Carolina's defense has been phenomenal, but their offense has been very suspect. QB Connor Shaw is not quite as developed as a passer as they had hoped, and losing Marcus Lattimore for the season has also placed a strain on the offensive production. Clemson's offense will be able to find ways to score on South Carolina's defense, and South Carolina will not be able to keep up offensively. Clemson will simply outscore South Carolina for the victory.
     Prediction: Clemson 28-21

#13 Georgia at #23 Georgia Tech (12:00 PM, ESPN): This is a battle to be the state of Georgia's best team, and the game is usually a fight. Georgia is playing in hopes that they can sneak into a BCS bowl. The Bulldogs did not play very well against Kentucky last week, but look for them to rebound and improve from that performance as they try to stifle Paul Johnson's unique triple option attack.
     Prediction: Georgia 27-21

Florida State at Florida (7:00 PM, ESPN2): These two teams have fallen out of national relevance, but that doesn't diminish the importance that both programs will place on this game. Florida State is coming off a disappointing loss to Virginia, and Florida allowed Furman to score 22 points in the first quarter last week. Florida State has the #7 ranked defense in the country in terms of total defense, and that will be too much for a Florida team that has struggled with its offense lately.
    Predicition: Florida State 24-13

The Rest
Vanderbilt at Wake Forest (3:30 PM, CBS): Vanderbilt just can't get any breaks. They have lost narrowly in several games now, including last week's overtime loss to Tennessee. If quarterback Jordan Rodgers can take care of the football, the Commodores will win this game against a sneaky Wake Forest team. Vanderbilt will finally get over the proverbial hump this week with a victory, and become bowl eligible for the first time since 2008.
    Prediction: Vanderbilt 31-28

Tennessee at Kentucky (12:21 PM, SEC Network): Tennessee got a lot of momentum from the return of quarterback Tyler Bray last week. He made a huge difference in the offensive performance, throwing for 189 yards and two touchdowns and leading the Vols to victory. Most importantly, he got the ball to wide receiver Da'Rick Rogers's hands, who is one of UT's best playmakers. Rogers cashed in, catching 10 passes for 116 yards and two touchdowns. Kentucky is the worst team in the SEC East. The Wildcats only have one SEC win so far this season, and this week will not bring their second. Tennessee will win and become bowl eligible in their last chance to do so.
    Prediction: Tennessee 31-13

Ole Miss at Mississippi State (7:00 PM, ESPNU): This game has not mattered on a national scale in a long time. Ole Miss is really bad this year, but Mississippi State isn't a whole lot better. Mississippi State had high expectations coming into the year after a nine win 2009, but has not lived up to the hype by only winning five games including only one SEC win. However, Mississippi State is good enough to win this year's Egg Bowl and will get its sixth win for the chance to go to a lower tier bowl game.
     Prediction: Mississippi State 27-17
*All Times Eastern

Lucas's Week 12 Record: 7-1
Lucas's Season Record: 78-13