A Look at Week 13 in the SEC

Last week I was 7-1 bringing my season total to 78-13 heading into the final week of the regular season. The only game I missed was Vanderbilt-Tennessee, which had a wacky ending with a Tennessee interception in overtime ending the game. So I was close, but no cigar. There were so many upsets outside of the SEC, that the SEC West now features the #1, 2, and 3 teams in the nation. Talk about a strong division.

Week 13 brings the best slate of games that I believe we have seen all season. It's rivalry week, and so you know that there is a lot on the line for these teams. You never know what may happen in rivalry games, as unexpected upsets seem to be the norm and games are usually always close, even when the game features two teams who don't look that close on paper. It should be a great weekend...

Game of the Week

LSU QB Jordan Jefferson

#3 Arkansas at #1 LSU (Friday, 2:30 PM, CBS): Game of the Century #2? Quite possibly. It helps that LSU will have this game at home, but this is the final test of the regular season for the Bengal Tigers, and it will be a tough one. Arkansas has been playing really well lately, and have vastly improved since they played Alabama in Week 4 of the season. However, LSU is really hot as well. They were beating Ole Miss so badly last week that they decided to take a knee with five minutes left in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson has taken over the starting role from Jarrett Lee after Lee threw two picks against Alabama, and Jefferson has not looked back. However, this will be his first major test as the starter. I think he passes the test and the Tigers will hold true to my prediction that they will be in the national title game this year. Death Valley and LSU's top-two defense will be too much for the Razorbacks.
    Prediction: LSU 27-24

Top Tier Games
#2 Alabama at #24 Auburn (3:30 PM, CBS): The Iron Bowl. The biggest rivalry in sports. This game will decide bragging rights in the state of Alabama for the next 364 days. Alabama has a lot on the line, as they are looking to try and lock up the #2 spot in the polls to be able to play a rematch against LSU in the National Title game. Or, they also still have the potential to make it to the SEC championship should LSU lose to Arkansas or Georgia. I won't get into all the tie breaker rules, but just know that it is still a possibility. Auburn has not been playing well lately. The Tigers were throttled by Georgia two weeks ago, and did not have the most impressive of showings against Samford last weekend.
      However, one strength of Ted Roof's Auburn defense over the years has been the ability to stop the power run game, which Alabama relies heavily on. For example, Auburn held talented South Carolina running back Marcus Lattimore to an average 49.5 yards per game the last two years and also held Alabama to an average of 69 rushing yards per game as a team in 2009-2010. Auburn will have a similar gameplan in place in hopes to stop Heisman candidate Trent Richardson, who is averaging 125 yards rushing per game this season. That it is a tall order, but I think that they will accomplish it to an extent, making this game closer than a lot of the experts think. Nevertheless, it is going to be near impossible for an Auburn offense that has really struggled this year to score on Alabama's top ranked defense. Auburn's offensive line has just been plain bad, and that will not change this week as I expect Alabama's defensive line and linebackers to dominate the line of scrimmage. The only thing stopping this from being a total blowout is that it is the Iron Bowl, and it is at Auburn.
      Prediction: Alabama 27-10

#17 Clemson at #12 South Carolina (7:45 PM, ESPN): This should be an excellent matchup. Clemson was poised to make a run at a National Championship appearance this year before Georgia Tech derailed their dreams a few weeks ago, and then NC State unexpectedly demolished the Tigers this past week. South Carolina's defense has been phenomenal, but their offense has been very suspect. QB Connor Shaw is not quite as developed as a passer as they had hoped, and losing Marcus Lattimore for the season has also placed a strain on the offensive production. Clemson's offense will be able to find ways to score on South Carolina's defense, and South Carolina will not be able to keep up offensively. Clemson will simply outscore South Carolina for the victory.
     Prediction: Clemson 28-21

#13 Georgia at #23 Georgia Tech (12:00 PM, ESPN): This is a battle to be the state of Georgia's best team, and the game is usually a fight. Georgia is playing in hopes that they can sneak into a BCS bowl. The Bulldogs did not play very well against Kentucky last week, but look for them to rebound and improve from that performance as they try to stifle Paul Johnson's unique triple option attack.
     Prediction: Georgia 27-21

Florida State at Florida (7:00 PM, ESPN2): These two teams have fallen out of national relevance, but that doesn't diminish the importance that both programs will place on this game. Florida State is coming off a disappointing loss to Virginia, and Florida allowed Furman to score 22 points in the first quarter last week. Florida State has the #7 ranked defense in the country in terms of total defense, and that will be too much for a Florida team that has struggled with its offense lately.
    Predicition: Florida State 24-13

The Rest
Vanderbilt at Wake Forest (3:30 PM, CBS): Vanderbilt just can't get any breaks. They have lost narrowly in several games now, including last week's overtime loss to Tennessee. If quarterback Jordan Rodgers can take care of the football, the Commodores will win this game against a sneaky Wake Forest team. Vanderbilt will finally get over the proverbial hump this week with a victory, and become bowl eligible for the first time since 2008.
    Prediction: Vanderbilt 31-28

Tennessee at Kentucky (12:21 PM, SEC Network): Tennessee got a lot of momentum from the return of quarterback Tyler Bray last week. He made a huge difference in the offensive performance, throwing for 189 yards and two touchdowns and leading the Vols to victory. Most importantly, he got the ball to wide receiver Da'Rick Rogers's hands, who is one of UT's best playmakers. Rogers cashed in, catching 10 passes for 116 yards and two touchdowns. Kentucky is the worst team in the SEC East. The Wildcats only have one SEC win so far this season, and this week will not bring their second. Tennessee will win and become bowl eligible in their last chance to do so.
    Prediction: Tennessee 31-13

Ole Miss at Mississippi State (7:00 PM, ESPNU): This game has not mattered on a national scale in a long time. Ole Miss is really bad this year, but Mississippi State isn't a whole lot better. Mississippi State had high expectations coming into the year after a nine win 2009, but has not lived up to the hype by only winning five games including only one SEC win. However, Mississippi State is good enough to win this year's Egg Bowl and will get its sixth win for the chance to go to a lower tier bowl game.
     Prediction: Mississippi State 27-17
*All Times Eastern

Lucas's Week 12 Record: 7-1
Lucas's Season Record: 78-13

A Look at Week 10 in the SEC

   My picks were 5-0 last week. Georgia beat Florida in the game of the week and were able to stay alive in the race for the SEC East, but will need some help from other SEC teams to overtake South Carolina and reach the SEC Championship game. South Carolina pulled out a win in Knoxville, which is never an easy task, and Arkansas scraped by a surging Vanderbilt team.

   Now on to Week 10. Everything has been building up to this week, and it's finally here...

Game of the Week

Nick Saban (left) and Les Miles (right) have been preparing for
this epic showdown all season

#1 LSU at #2 Alabama (8:00 PM, CBS): Clash of the Titans. It's what we have all been waiting for. This game has been billed as the "game of the century" by many. While I don't necessarily agree with that, it definitely is one of the most anticipated regular season matchups in recent memory. There are reports that media credential requests are currently around 600. That is a huge number. Alabama's press box only seats around 150. That goes to show the importance and hype of this monstrous meeting of two SEC giants. In essence, this game could be considered the de facto national championship, as whichever team wins this game will have a good chance to go undefeated the rest of the way until the actual National Championship in January. Alabama has one big edge being the home field team. These teams to be very evenly matched as they both feature similar strengths. Both are very strong on defense (Alabama is ranked first nationally in total defense, LSU is fourth), and both feature solid rushing attacks (both are in the top 30 in rushing yards per game). However, LSU seems to be more complete. With two seasoned quarterbacks in seniors Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson leading the way, LSU's offense has the edge over Alabama. Couple strong quarterback play with talented receivers Reuben Randle and Odell Beckham, LSU can throw on you if they need to, and I don't have as much confidence in Alabama's ability to do that. I think this game will show just how much the Crimson Tide misses Julio Jones and what he was able to do for the Tide's offense that they lack this year. Their only big time receiver is Marquis Maze, who will be the focus of the vaunted LSU secondary.
   LSU is also more tested than Alabama. LSU dismantled Oregon in the season opener, who by the way are 7-1 on the season and ranked #8 in the nation. They also beat West Virginia, Florida, and Auburn easily. Alabama has signature wins over Penn State, Arkansas, and Florida, and although they are impressive, they are not as quite as impressive as LSU's victories.
    Alabama does have a very good running back in junior Heisman candidate Trent Richardson. Richardson is tied with Auburn's Michael Dyer as the top rusher in the SEC and has looked quite impressive over the course of the season. However, LSU has two quality backs in sophomores Michael Ford and Spencer Ware who will run over and around you at any given moment.
    I chose LSU to win the National Championship this summer, and there is no way I am deviating from that prediction now. I expect this game to be a defensive slug-fest and very low scoring, but "The Hat" Les Miles will find a way to pull out the victory in then end.
    Prediction: LSU 17-13

Top Tier Games
#9 South Carolina at #7 Arkansas (7:15 PM, ESPN): This game features a top ten matchup with two teams that have been somewhat struggling as of late. South Carolina was able to eek out wins against Mississippi State and Tennesse, and now no longer have running back Marcus Lattimore. However, freshman Brandon Wilds filled in admirably in his absence last week against Tennessee and was able to run for 137 yards on 28 carries. He is no Marcus Lattimore, but Wilds is definitely a threat to an Arkansas defense that is giving up 131 yards per game on the ground. Arkansas narrowly escaped getting beat by both Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, two teams who would seem to be over-matched against Arkansas on paper. However, expect Arkansas to play up to their competition this week.This will be South Carolina's first real test without Lattimore and it will not go as well as the game against Tennessee. Home field advantage gives Arkansas the edge, and the Razorbacks will be able to pull out a victory against the Gamecocks.
    Prediction: Arkansas 27-13

Vanderbilt at Florida (12:15 PM, SEC Network): Vanderbilt has played its last two SEC opponents, Georgia and Arkansas, very close and look to be a team that is on the rise. Junior quarterback Jordan Rodgers, while not throwing for a lot of yards, has averaged just over 80 yards rushing since he took over as the starter three games ago. Junior running back Zac Stacy has added the running threat that Vandy needed and has really come on strong, averaging 141 yards rushing over the last three games. However, Florida had running back Jeff Demps and quarterback John Brantley return from injury against UGA last week, and both made and a noticeable difference in the production of the offense. Demps had a long catch for 72 yards and Brantley threw for 245 yards and a touchdown. Those two re-additions combined with Florida's home field advantage in The Swamp will allow them to win this game.
    Prediction: Florida 24-14

The Rest
Ole Miss at Kentucky (3:30 PM, ESPNU): The battle for the worst team in the SEC is on. Ole Miss has looked somewhat better the last two weeks, playing Auburn close in the first half and requiring Arkansas to come back from a 17 point deficit to beat them. Kentucky has not showed any glimmer of hope at any point in their season.
    Prediction: Ole Miss 21-17


New Mexico State at #18 Georgia (12:30 PM, CSS): Georgia had to suspend tailbacks Isaiah Crowell, Carlton Thomas, and Ken Malcome after all three failed drug tests and also have tailback Richard Samuel out with an injury. That only leaves former walk-on Brandon Harton and walk-on Kyle Karempelis as the only ones left to handle all of the carries. But it is New Mexico State after all, so that won't matter. 
     Prediction: Georgia 31-13


Middle Tennesse at Tennessee (7 PM, FSS): This game will be a much better scenario for freshman quarterback Justin Worley to get his feet under him than last week against South Carolina turned out to be. The Vols turned to Worley for the first time last week, and he completed 10 of 26 passes for 105 yards and two interceptions. Hopefully he will be able to find more of a rhythm against the Blue Raiders as the Vols roll to victory.
     Prediction: Tennessee 31-13


UT Martin at Mississippi State (7:30 PM, CSS): Mississippi State was able to get their first SEC victory against Kentucky last week, but still need a few more victories to become bowl eligible. Most likely the Egg Bowl against Ole Miss will determine whether or not the Bulldogs have a postseason this year. MSU wins easily over UT Martin as they inch closer to a bowl berth.
    Prediction: Mississippi State 34-16
*All Times Eastern

Lucas's Week 9 Record: 5-0
Lucas's Season Record: 60-9


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A Look at Week 5 in the SEC

Week 4 didn't bring much excitement within the SEC. Other than LA Tech taking Mississippi State to overtime, all the games went as expected and weren't that close. My predictions from last week ended up 8-0, which came as a result of there not really being any difficult games to pick other than the non-SEC game I included. LSU throttled another ranked team, and still have all the makings of a national title contender. Alabama looked impressive as well, destroying a quality Arkansas team. It's shaping up to be a heavyweight bout between Alabama and LSU on November 5th.

Now let's take a look at Week 5...

Game of the Week

Will Rainey and the Gators be able
to pull off the upset?

#3 Alabama at #12 Florida (8:00 PM, CBS): This game will really tell us if Florida is the real deal or not. They are undefeated so far, and have looked much more impressive than I thought they would be in their first season under Will Muschamp. It will be interesting to see Florida's dynamic speed in Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps against Alabama's lock down defense. This game being in The Swamp makes it intriguing and definitely increases Florida's chances of pulling the upset. However, Alabama's defense is for real, and they have looked very impressive so far this year. It also helps to have two power backs in Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy that will help turn the time of possession in Alabama's favor. Alabama wins, but it will be their closest game so far this year.
     Prediction: Alabama 24-21

Top Tier Games:

Auburn will have to give Dyer more
carries if they want to have any
chance to win.

Auburn at #10 South Carolina (3:30 PM, CBS): This game will begin a very tough four game stretch for the Auburn Tigers. In the next four weeks they play on the road against South Carolina and Arkansas, home against Florida, and then back on the road to take on LSU. I think most Auburn fans would consider it a victory to come out of that stretch 2-2 and would maybe take being 1-3. Auburn's biggest challenge is going to be trying to stop Marcus Lattimore with their defense that has been porous so far this season. According to Vegas, Auburn is a 10 point underdog. The plausible reason for an Auburn upset is the fact that South Carolina's Stephen Garcia has thrown 7 interceptions in the last 3 games, and that will give any team a chance. However, you know that South Carolina has had this date circled on their calendar for a year after getting beat twice by AU last season including a thrashing in the SEC Championship Game. My heart tells me Auburn, but my head tells me South Carolina. South Carolina wins, but, as Lee Corso would say, it will be closer than the experts think.
     Prediction: South Carolina 34-31


#14 Texas A&M at #18 Arkansas (12:00 PM, ESPN): Both of these teams are coming off their first loss of the season last week. Texas A&M was officially admitted into the SEC this week and so it's a nifty coincidence that they also face an SEC opponent as well. A&M has the same problem this week that they had last week against Oklahoma State, and that's a high powered offense. Arkansas has an elite passing game along with home field advantage, and for those reasons Arkansas will pull out the victory.
     Prediction: Arkansas 31-27


Mississippi State at Georgia (12:00 PM, FSN): Both of these teams have definitely had their struggles this season. Mississippi State had a 1-2 LA Tech team take them to overtime last week and Georgia started off the season with two straight losses. However, Georgia is coming off of two straight wins and is looking to build that momentum with a win over MSU. Although Georgia has had its flaws, they have shown more than Mississippi State this season. Georgia takes the victory at home.
    Prediction: Georgia 28-17

Bonus Non-SEC Game

Wisconsin's Russell Wilson

#8 Nebraska at #7 Wisconsin (8:00 PM, ABC): This game features a top ten matchup between two Big Ten foes. Russell Wilson has fit in perfectly at Wisconsin and has the makings of a potential Heisman candidate. What could have been for Auburn, right? Wisconsin has a very impressive defense that ranks right behind Alabama as the #3 scoring defense in the nation only allowing 8.5 points per game. The defense has looked good and Russell Wilson has jolted the offense this season and has them hitting on all cylinders scoring 48.5 points per game. Wisconsin wins this showdown at Camp Randall Stadium.
    Prediction: Wisconsin 31-21


The Rest
Kentucky at #1 LSU (12:21 PM, SEC Network): LSU 44-7
Buffalo at Tennessee (12:30 PM, CSS): Tennessee 31-10
Ole Miss at Fresno State (9:15 PM, ESPN2): 24-17 Ole Miss
*All Times Eastern


Lucas' Week 4 Record: 8-0
Lucas' Season Record: 33-6

A Look at Week 4 in the SEC

I continued my trend of missing on two games per week in Week 3. I missed on Auburn and Kentucky. I knew that the Kentucky game would be a coin toss, and unfortunately I chose the wrong side of the coin. However, I did not expect what I saw from Auburn against Clemson on Saturday. The defense looked atrocious. The main causes for that seem to be poor tackling, bad angles, and inexperience. Auburn's defense have looked bad for the last three years, and would have been a lot worse last year if not for Nick Fairley and an experienced group of seniors. No one knows whether to place the blame on Defensive Coordinator Ted Roof, or Head Coach Gene Chizik because he is known to be a defensive mind. Regardless, if things don't change this season I think it's likely that Roof will be relieved of his duties in the offseason.

Now on to Week 4...

Game of the Week

Alabama's secondary will
try to shut down Tyler Wilson

#14 Arkansas at #3 Alabama (3:30 PM, CBS): Bobby Petrino's hogs will look to bring their high powered air attack to Tuscaloosa and pull out a win. In my Summer SEC West Predictions, I had Arkansas finishing above Alabama in the West standings. However, the loss of Knile Davis to an ankle injury after I wrote that has made Arkansas too one dimensional. I no longer see Arkansas being able to finish higher than Alabama. This game sets up to be very entertaining though, as it's strength on strength with Arkansas' passing game against Alabama's defense. If you remember last year, Arkansas had Alabama on the ropes early in that game in Fayetteville, but I don't see that there's any way Arkansas can upset Alabama in Bryant-Denny this year. Alabama's secondary is too good, and Tyler Wilson is too inexperienced in big games to be able to defeat a good Alabama team in a hostile environment. Alabama's defense wins out.
    Prediction: Alabama 27-17


Top Tier Games

LSU's Tyrann Mathieu

#2 LSU at #16 West Virginia (8:00 PM, ABC): LSU faces a difficult non-conference road test this week in having to travel to 16th ranked West Virginia. LSU needs to step up and win this game to prove that they are truly a national championship contender. I felt like LSU had a good chance to win the SEC and make the national championship before the season, and I still feel that way. Their defense really has looked phenomenal, and Jarrett Lee is doing enough to win. As Edward Aschoff of ESPN writes, LSU should continue to start Lee even if Jordan Jefferson comes back from suspension. He is not making many bad mistakes so far this season, and that's all they really need. Also, playmaker Russell Shepard is set to return from suspension this week, and that is big for LSU. He is by far their most dynamic offensive player and should make their offense better immediately.
    Prediction: LSU 28-10

Vanderbilt at #12 South Carolina (7:00 PM, ESPN): Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina? A top tier game? It looks to be so this year. Vanderbilt has looked very impressive in route to three straight wins to opens the season. They absolutely stomped Ole Miss last week 30-7. If South Carolina looks past Vanderblit because they have been a gimme in the past, they may be in for a surprise. However, I think South Carolina should be passed that by now after having a scare from Navy last week.
   Prediction: South Carolina 27-21

Second Tier Game
Georgia at Ole Miss (12:30 PM, SEC Network): This is a battle between two 1-2 teams that seem to be flailing right now. Georgia got their first win of the season last week against Coastal Carolina, and that may be what they needed to get back on track. Ole Miss has looked absolutely horrendous so far this season. If Georgia loses to Ole Miss then the fire Mark Richt train will be in full motion if it already isn't. But I don't expect that to happen.
    Prediction: Georgia 31-17

Bonus Non-SEC Game
#7 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas A&M (3:30 PM, ABC): This game is going to be exciting to watch as two top ten Big 12 members face off. Oklahoma State has looked very impressive so far this season. Senior quarterback Brandon Weeden has thrown for over 1,100 yards in just three games, and has arguably the best receiver in the NCAA at his disposal in Justin Blackmon. Texas A&M has looked good as well, stomping SMU and Idaho in the first two games of their season. However, I'm going with the Oklahoma State Cowboys and their top three ranked offense.
    Prediction: Oklahoma State 31-21


The Rest
FAU at Auburn (7:00 PM, FSN): 44-17 Auburn
LA Tech at Mississippi State (7 PM, ESPNU): 31-10 Mississippi State
#15 Florida at Kentucky (7 PM, ESPN): 38-7 Florida

Lucas' Week 3 Record: 7-2
Lucas' Season Record: 25-6