A Look at Week 9 in the SEC

    Last week's games were very underwhelming. Everyone that was expected to take care of business, did. I did not expect Auburn to get blown out like they did, but I guess that's what happens when you have a very young team and start a new quarterback against the best team in the country. Both Alabama and LSU remain unscathed going into their bye weeks and are primed for the matchup that everyone has been talking about on November 5th. I also did not expect Arkansas to struggle as much as they did against Ole Miss. Ole Miss was leading 17-0 at one point and the Razorbacks had to climb back to win 29-24. I think it's safe to say that Arkansas was underestimating the Rebels.

    I was 5-0 last week, but most of the games had heavy favorites and that made it a fairly easy week to pick. On to Week 9....

Game of the Week

Georgia's Aaron Murray

Florida vs. #22 Georgia (3:30 PM, CBS): Florida comes into this game with questions about the health of starting quarterback John Brantley. He has missed the last two games after suffering a leg injury to Alabama. He had the bye last week to recover, and Florida head coach Will Muschamp expects him to play Saturday. That will provide a big boost for the Gators as they take on Georgia. The Bulldogs have been playing better each week and their defense has been shining as of late, only giving up 12.6 points per game over their last five games. That's a vast improvement from a team who allowed Boise State and South Carolina to put up a combined 80 points. Brantley hasn't played in three and a half weeks and is most likely not going to be 100 percent even if he does play. Georgia's defense will carry them and sophomore quarterback Aaron Murray will do just enough for the Bulldogs to pull out a close one. 
    Prediction: Georgia 24-21


The Others

USC's Alshon Jeffery

#13 South Carolina at Tennessee (7:15 PM, ESPN2): There is no doubt that South Carolina will look like a completely different team without stud sophomore running back Marcus Lattimore, who was lost for the season after hurting his knee against Mississippi State two weeks ago. That fact alone will cause this game to be much closer than it would have been otherwise. However, Tennessee has decided to start true freshman quarterback Justin Worley and pull his redshirt instead of playing struggling senior Matt Simms for another game. South Carolina's defense is solid, and their stellar defensive line should take advantage of the Vols' true freshman as he throws his first collegiate passes Saturday. I expect a big game from South Carolina's junior wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, who will be facing a very weak Tennessee secondary.
    Prediction: South Carolina 28-17

#10 Arkansas at Vanderbilt (12:21 PM, SEC Network): Arkansas surprisingly struggled with Ole Miss last weekend and had to come from behind to earn the victory. Don't expect them to make the same mistake twice. The Razorbacks will try to rebound from their poor performance against the Rebels and beat the Commodores on the road. Vanderbilt pounded Army 44-21 behind junior quarterback Jordan Rodgers, who had 186 yards passing and almost 100 yards rushing. Rodgers has provided a much needed spark to Vanderbilt's offense, but it is their defense that will struggle the most this week. It's not likely that the 'Dores will be able to stop quarterback Arkansas Tyler Wilson and his multitude of options through the air.
    Prediction: Arkansas 35-17

Ole Miss at #23 Auburn (7:00 PM, ESPNU): The Rebels made it tough on Arkansas last weekend and will try to continue their improvement against Auburn. Auburn was thrashed by #1 LSU, and will not want to let that loss bleed into this game. Look for Auburn to come out mad and hungry for a victory after being humiliated by LSU. It remains to be seen whether star wide receiver Emory Blake will be playing after missing the last few weeks with an ankle injury, but it shouldn't matter for the Tigers' chances to win this game. Head coach Gene Chizik is 18-2 at home during his Auburn tenure. This game could look very simliar to their matchup in 2009 when Auburn beat Ole Miss 33-20 and dominated most of the game after getting destroyed by LSU 31-10 the week before. I expect Clint Moseley to find his groove against the Ole Miss defense and Auburn will get its sixth victory of the season and thus become bowl eligible.
    Prediction: Auburn 28-13

Mississippi State at Kentucky (7:00 PM, FSN): One of these teams will get its first SEC victory this weekend. Kentucky beat up on FCS opponent Jacksonville State 38-14 last week and Mississippi State lost on a last second Alshon Jeffery touchdown to South Carolina 14-12 in their last game two weeks ago. Mississippi State has shown more the first half of the season, and Kentucky lacks any semblance of a passing game. Mississippi State is the better of two bad teams.The Bulldogs will get their first conference win.
    Prediction: Mississippi State 24-17

Lucas's Week 8 Record: 5-0
Lucas's Season Record: 55-9

A Look at Week 6 in the SEC

Last weeks games featured a major upset in the form of the Auburn Tigers defeating #10 South Carolina. That was an upset that honestly I could see coming because of Steve Spurrier's South Carolina track record of choking at least once a season, but at the time I had no reason to believe that Auburn could play well enough to win. I ended with a 7-1 record last week bringing my season total to 40-7. Hopefully the streak will continue as we have a few intriguing games on tap for this week.

On to Week 6...

Game of the Week

Auburn will look to upset Arkansas this week

#15 Auburn at #10 Arkansas (7:00 PM, ESPN): Auburn's defense improved dramatically last week against South Carolina. They will need a similar performance to defeat a good Arkansas team. Arkansas erases an 18 point halftime deficit to defeat Texas A&M behind a 510 yard effort through the air by quarterback Tyler Wilson. However, Arkansas looked very vulnerable against the run giving up 381 total yards on the ground and 230 to Aggies' running back Christine Michael. Auburn will undoubtedly look to attack the hogs in a similar fashion. Gus Malzahn showed no hesitation in giving Michael Dyer the ball over and over again last week on the way to 41 carries for 141 yards. Auburn will most likely employ a similar game plan this week in effort to control time of possession and keep their defense and Tyler Wilson off the field as much as possible. I also like what Malzahn has done with true freshman QB Kiehl Frazier, who will likely see more and more of the game plan as the season progresses. Frazier has added an element to Auburn's offense that they have needed and enabled them to run the zone read that was such an important play for them last year. As a result, they have been much more effective on third down than they were at the beginning of the season. Auburn pulls off their second upset in as many weeks.
     Prediction: Auburn 31 Arkansas 27

Top Tier Games

Georgia will lean on freshman Isaiah
Crowell against Tennessee

Georgia at Tennessee (7:00 PM, ESPN2): Tennessee lost arguably the best receiver in the SEC to injury against Florida in Justin Hunter. That will really hurt this team, and they have had to rely solely on Da'Rick Rogers, who stepped up excellently against Buffalo on his way to 180 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, Tennessee has not been able to get their running game on track all season, and that limits them at times because they have to rely completely on Tyler Bray, which is a difficult load for any quarterback to carry. Tennessee has only run for 444 yards on the season, which is good enough for last in the SEC and 107th out of 120 FBS teams. Georgia struggled to start the season, but have turned it on as of late, which is in a large part due to the emergence of true freshman running back Isaiah Crowell. Georgia has increased his carries in the last two games, and as a result he ran for 147 and 104 yards, respectively. Getting the running game going is crucial to their success because quarterback Aaron Murray is much better out of the play action than he is as a drop back QB. Although Murray threw 3 interceptions against Mississippi State last week, he will most likely improve that number this week as Tennessee has not been a big threat to intercept the ball this season. They have just 1 interception on the year, which ranks them tied for second to last in the FBS. Georgia will win this game by running the ball and playing solid third down defense.
      Prediction: Georgia 28 Tennessee 24

#17 Florida at #1 LSU (3:30 PM, CBS): On paper this looks like a solid match up between two ranked teams. However, Florida lost QB John Brantley last week to injury against Alabama and he won't play this week against LSU. That means Florida will be throwing true freshman Jeff Driskel into the fire at Death Valley. That doesn't bode well for their chances of success. LSU's vaunted defense has to be licking their chops, and I expect Tyrann Mathieu to remind Driskel that this is no longer high school. It will be interesting to watch exactly how much Les Miles will play Jordan Jefferson this week. He came in last week against Kentucky as a change of pace quarterback and rushed 4 times for 29 yards. I don't think Les Miles will deviate from starting Jarrett Lee yet, and I expect to see Jefferson in a similar change of pace role this week. But I wouldn't be surprised if Jefferson's role increases over the next few games as he clearly wants his starting job back. LSU wins this game with dominating defense against an over-matched Florida offense.
     Prediction: LSU 27 Florida 13

Bottom Tier Games
Kentucky at #18 South Carolina (12:21 PM, SEC Network): South Carolina will try a new quarterback this week after Stephen Garcia threw 2 interceptions and completed just 39% of his passes against Auburn last week. Coach Steve Spurrier is turning to sophomore Connor Shaw in hopes that Shaw can ignite what has turned out to be a stagnant South Carolina offense. Kentucky is the perfect opponent for Shaw to get his feet wet. Kentucky has been challenging Ole Miss as possibly being the worst team in the SEC and have struggled all season.
     Prediction: South Carolina 31 Kentucky 10

Vanderbilt at #2 Alabama (7:00 PM, ESPNU): Vanderbilt has surprised some folks this year with a 3-1 record and wins over Ole Miss and UConn. They won't be surprising anyone this Saturday.
     Prediction: Alabama 31 Vanderbilt 3

Mississippi State at UAB (12:00 PM, FSN): Mississippi State travels to Legion Field to take on the UAB Blazers. The bulldogs will try and get their offense back on track against a poor 0-4 UAB squad.
      Prediction: Mississippi State 27 UAB 7
*All Times Eastern

Lucas' Week 5 Record: 7-1
Lucas' Season Record: 40-7

A Look at Week 4 in the SEC

I continued my trend of missing on two games per week in Week 3. I missed on Auburn and Kentucky. I knew that the Kentucky game would be a coin toss, and unfortunately I chose the wrong side of the coin. However, I did not expect what I saw from Auburn against Clemson on Saturday. The defense looked atrocious. The main causes for that seem to be poor tackling, bad angles, and inexperience. Auburn's defense have looked bad for the last three years, and would have been a lot worse last year if not for Nick Fairley and an experienced group of seniors. No one knows whether to place the blame on Defensive Coordinator Ted Roof, or Head Coach Gene Chizik because he is known to be a defensive mind. Regardless, if things don't change this season I think it's likely that Roof will be relieved of his duties in the offseason.

Now on to Week 4...

Game of the Week

Alabama's secondary will
try to shut down Tyler Wilson

#14 Arkansas at #3 Alabama (3:30 PM, CBS): Bobby Petrino's hogs will look to bring their high powered air attack to Tuscaloosa and pull out a win. In my Summer SEC West Predictions, I had Arkansas finishing above Alabama in the West standings. However, the loss of Knile Davis to an ankle injury after I wrote that has made Arkansas too one dimensional. I no longer see Arkansas being able to finish higher than Alabama. This game sets up to be very entertaining though, as it's strength on strength with Arkansas' passing game against Alabama's defense. If you remember last year, Arkansas had Alabama on the ropes early in that game in Fayetteville, but I don't see that there's any way Arkansas can upset Alabama in Bryant-Denny this year. Alabama's secondary is too good, and Tyler Wilson is too inexperienced in big games to be able to defeat a good Alabama team in a hostile environment. Alabama's defense wins out.
    Prediction: Alabama 27-17


Top Tier Games

LSU's Tyrann Mathieu

#2 LSU at #16 West Virginia (8:00 PM, ABC): LSU faces a difficult non-conference road test this week in having to travel to 16th ranked West Virginia. LSU needs to step up and win this game to prove that they are truly a national championship contender. I felt like LSU had a good chance to win the SEC and make the national championship before the season, and I still feel that way. Their defense really has looked phenomenal, and Jarrett Lee is doing enough to win. As Edward Aschoff of ESPN writes, LSU should continue to start Lee even if Jordan Jefferson comes back from suspension. He is not making many bad mistakes so far this season, and that's all they really need. Also, playmaker Russell Shepard is set to return from suspension this week, and that is big for LSU. He is by far their most dynamic offensive player and should make their offense better immediately.
    Prediction: LSU 28-10

Vanderbilt at #12 South Carolina (7:00 PM, ESPN): Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina? A top tier game? It looks to be so this year. Vanderbilt has looked very impressive in route to three straight wins to opens the season. They absolutely stomped Ole Miss last week 30-7. If South Carolina looks past Vanderblit because they have been a gimme in the past, they may be in for a surprise. However, I think South Carolina should be passed that by now after having a scare from Navy last week.
   Prediction: South Carolina 27-21

Second Tier Game
Georgia at Ole Miss (12:30 PM, SEC Network): This is a battle between two 1-2 teams that seem to be flailing right now. Georgia got their first win of the season last week against Coastal Carolina, and that may be what they needed to get back on track. Ole Miss has looked absolutely horrendous so far this season. If Georgia loses to Ole Miss then the fire Mark Richt train will be in full motion if it already isn't. But I don't expect that to happen.
    Prediction: Georgia 31-17

Bonus Non-SEC Game
#7 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas A&M (3:30 PM, ABC): This game is going to be exciting to watch as two top ten Big 12 members face off. Oklahoma State has looked very impressive so far this season. Senior quarterback Brandon Weeden has thrown for over 1,100 yards in just three games, and has arguably the best receiver in the NCAA at his disposal in Justin Blackmon. Texas A&M has looked good as well, stomping SMU and Idaho in the first two games of their season. However, I'm going with the Oklahoma State Cowboys and their top three ranked offense.
    Prediction: Oklahoma State 31-21


The Rest
FAU at Auburn (7:00 PM, FSN): 44-17 Auburn
LA Tech at Mississippi State (7 PM, ESPNU): 31-10 Mississippi State
#15 Florida at Kentucky (7 PM, ESPN): 38-7 Florida

Lucas' Week 3 Record: 7-2
Lucas' Season Record: 25-6