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2012 SEC Predictions

After contemplating the idea of postponing the blog for a year based on my busy schedule while trying to finish out grad school, I have decided to bring it back this season. However, it may have to be an abbreviated version of the content that I provided last year. I still plan to bring you weekly predictions and insight, but it may just have to be a little toned down. I'll do my best to still make it good enough that you will want to read it each week. Without further ado, here are my SEC predictions for the 2012 football season.

 SEC East:

Aaron Murray will try to lead his team back to the
SEC Championship

1. Georgia - The Bulldogs have a lot of solid pieces returning. That combined with the easiest schedule in all of the SEC will allow them to return to the SEC Championship game.
2. South Carolina - South Carolina gets running back Marcus Lattimore back from injury which will be huge this year. He is by far the best back in the SEC and maybe the NCAA. However, they will slip up in a few games they should win in prototypical Gamecock fashion.
3. Tennessee - I was tempted to put UT at #2, but the news of Da'Rick Rogers being suspended today leaves too many questions for the Vols. Losing Rogers will be a big blow, as he has NFL talent at wide receiver. Junior college transfer Cordarelle Patterson will have to step up big at wide receiver for the Vols to finish above third in the East.
4. Florida - Florida could very well exceed my expectations this year, but I just get the sense that they are still in rebuilding mode and have a ton of question marks on offense.
5. Missouri - Missouri faces a tough early season schedule with Georgia in Week 2 and South Carolina in Week 4. They will struggle in their first season in the SEC.
6. Vanderbilt - James Franklin has built a lot of momentum for the VU program, but they just aren't quite there yet.
7. Kentucky - Kentucky is still Kentucky.

SEC West:

New LSU QB Zach Mettenberger could be the difference this
year

1. LSU - Yes I'm predicting the same SEC Championship as last year. Is that likely? Maybe not. Does that scare me from picking it anyways? Nope. New starting quarterback Zach Mettenberger will make a difference for the Tigers this year. Tyrann Mathieu being kicked off the team will be a loss, but if any team has the depth to absorb it, it's LSU.
2. Alabama - Alabama has a lot of great pieces remaining and never struggle to replace their outgoing players. It really is a toss up between the Tide and LSU but it's really hard for any team to repeat. I have a better feeling about LSU this year than I do Alabama.
3. Arkansas - How big is it for Arkansas to lose head coach Bobby Petrino? Big enough that if they still had him I probably would have them in the top two. However, I still think they have enough talent to finish third in the West which is a big accomplishment these days.
4. Auburn - Auburn has as much potential as any team this year, but just doesn't have the experience yet. They will be starting 2-3 true or redshirt freshmen on the offensive line which is never a good thing in the SEC no matter how talented they are. They also have yet to name a starting quarterback, but by all accounts it will be Kiehl Frazier under center against Clemson next Saturday. Frazier has a lot of potential, but only very limited game experience. (Update 1:45 PM: Kiehl Frazier has been named Auburn's starting QB, as expected.)
5. Texas A&M - This will be the Aggies first year in the SEC. Texas A&M has a new coach in former Houston head man Kevin Sumlin. They will be installing the high flying offense that set many records at Houston the past few years which should be entertaining. However, the Aggies will find out the hard way what it's like to go through the weekly grind of the SEC.
6. Mississippi State - Will Mississippi State ever beat anyone worthwhile other than Ole Miss? They may eventually, but at this point they don't have the talent to compete at a high level in this conference.
7. Ole Miss - It will take a while for new head coach Hugh Freeze to get this ship turned around. He's making some strides, but it's going to be a long process.

Want to look back at my SEC predictions from last year? Here they are:
SEC East
SEC West

The Saban Rules

Coaches are always excited when a top prospect commits to their school. What happens when a long time commitment finds out his offer is no longer valid from the school of his choice? Unfortunately, two prospects from Alabama found that out this recruiting season.

Justin Taylor

As reported by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Alabama coach Nick Saban told one of his earliest 2012 commitments, running back Justin Taylor, that he no longer had an offer from the Tide. Saban instead offered Taylor a "grayshirt" offer, which means that Taylor would wait until the spring to enroll so that he would not affect the limited scholarship number for this 2012 signing class. Taylor was the Tide's 7th commitment for the 2012 class. So what happened to suddenly change the situation? Taylor injured his knee prior to his senior season, and Alabama started to get interest from recruits that are more highly touted. Therefore, Saban decided to process the long time Alabama commitment just weeks before signing day, leaving Taylor in a rough spot. Saban had gone back on his word just a month prior to signing day, and Taylor was taken completely by surprise. Taylor ended up signing with Kentucky on signing day. Read the original article that broke the Justin Taylor story from the AJC here.

Darius Philon

Darius Philon, a defensive tackle from Vigor High School (Prichard, AL), suffered a similar fate yesterday. Philon put on an Alabama hat at his school's signing day ceremony, but rushed away shortly after while not talking to any media. He could no longer attend Alabama even if he wanted to. Philon committed to Alabama in September, just to have Saban leave him standing at the altar just prior to National Signing Day. Alabama had to make room for another top guy and Philon was the one chosen to get his scholarship axed. His high school coach, Kerry Stevenson, blamed it on the system rather than Saban's classlessness. "He had the world snatched from up under him," Stevenson commented to the Press-Register of Philon. "I'm pretty sure he's wondering, 'Why me?' On a number of occasions, [Alabama] stated how much they don't want to lose him. They got put in a bind. I can see where it could happen, especially with this being the first year of the SEC putting in a stipulation like this." Shame on his coach for not sticking up for the kid. Every other school in the SEC had the same limitations, yet Alabama was the only one to treat kids this way. After having his heart crushed by Alabama, Philon ended up signing with Arkansas.

Prior to the 2010 signing day Saban said in article written by Auburn Undercover's Phillip Marshall that a "commitment is a commitment." He went on to say, "We tell guys when they commit that we want the recruiting to be over or we really don’t want them to commit. If you’re not really ready to stop recruiting, then you aren’t really ready to commit, because committing means you are coming to that school." I guess it doesn't work in the other direction, does it Coach? Hypocrisy.

Yesterday Saban said, "Every coach I know has the best interests of players in mind." I'm pretty sure that Justin Taylor and Darius Philon would not agree with that statement. In addition to often reneging scholarship offers to recruits, Saban also often awards medical hardship scholarships to players that have slipped down the depth chart. These are just a few examples of many ways Saban works his college program like it's an NFL team, and treats his players like they are getting paid millions to play rather than on a football scholarship to get an education from an institution of higher learning.

Saban was asked about offering recruits four year scholarships rather than the one year renewable scholarships that are currently common place. Saban quipped that when that was done decades ago that it created "lawsuits galore." Is that the reason? Or is it because Saban wouldn't be able to manicure his roster however he so desires? Currently Auburn and Florida are the only two SEC teams that are offering multi-year scholarships, and I say good for them. Way to stand up for your commitments to these student-athletes.

Rob Pate, a former Auburn safety, had this to say about the situation, "I think what Saban did to two long-time Bama commits was disgraceful, soulless, and infinitley hyprocritical. It should be reported on ad nausem and shouted from the roof tops for recruits to never forget. This kid's dream moment, all the hard work he's put into it, the day it all comes to fruition before your family and friends, and it gets [destroyed] by Nick Saban. Classless, reprehensible, disgusting. My kid would never play for a person cut from cloth like that. Sickening!" I agree with Rob. There is no way I would want my kid to play for a coach with that kind of moral character. He will turn his back on you as soon as you no longer fit into his "business" plans.

Is Saban a good football coach? Sure. There's no arguing that. He has won two national championships in the last three years. But let's not allow that to hide the unethical decisions he's making behind the scenes that affect the future of 18-22 year old kids.

The 2011 SEC Season in Review

Alabama was crowned BCS National Champions

First of all,  I would like to apologize for how long it has taken me to get to this post. I have planned to do it for a while, but soon after college football season ended my schedule got cranked up and busy. So here it is...

Let's take a look back at the season that was in the SEC. In June I made predictions for the final standings in both the SEC East and the SEC West. My biggest projection success was predicting LSU to win the SEC and win the SEC West, which they did. However, I also believed that the Tigers would win the National Championship, but they did not. Alabama was able to sneak into the title game and upset the Bayou Bengals. Here were my full predicted standings:

West:

1. LSU

2. Arkansas

3. Alabama

4. Auburn

5. Mississippi State

6. Ole Miss

East:

1. South Carolina

2. Georgia

3: Tennessee 

4. Florida

5. Kentucky

6. Vanderbilt

As you can see, I did pretty well with my West predictions, the only mistake was flip-flopping Arkansas and Alabama. Arkansas losing Knile Davis before the season was a huge blow, and Alabama's defense was much more dominant than I expected, which allowed the Tide to finish second in the West and win the National Championship.

The East, on the other hand, was somewhat of a disaster. Georgia ended up winning the East, and South Carolina was really hurt by losing its star running back Marcus Lattimore in the middle of the season. The rest of the standings were pretty far off. To me, Tennessee was the biggest surprise, as I had them finishing third and the Vols ultimately ended up in last place. However, a lot of that had to do with injuries to QB Tyler Bray and top wide receiver Justin Hunter.

I finished with a 89-19 record for the season. I had a terrible bowl season, only predicting four of the eight games correctly. However, my overall season record wasn't half bad. For comparison's sake, without the three non-conference games I had an 87-18 record. ESPN blogger Chris Low finished with an 89-16 record and Edward Aschoff finished with an 86-18 record. So at least I beat one of them!

A quick prediction for the 2012 SEC Championship game: LSU vs. Georgia. LSU is returning a lot of key contributors and are loaded once again. Georgia has a soft schedule that will be very advantageous for the Bulldogs to reach the SEC Championship against LSU for the second season in a row (note: I reserve the right to change my prediction prior to the season). 

Overall, it was a fun season of SEC blogging and I hope that you enjoyed reading it. I have had 1,376 views since last June, averaging roughly 50-60 hits per post. I also have had 48 page views from Russia and 20 from Germany. Apparently SEC football is big over there too! That all being said, thanks to all those who read now and again. I hope I have given you some entertainment and insight throughout the course of the football season. 

I'm struggling with where to go with the future direction of my blog. I don't know whether to keep doing it they way I did this season, primarily cover one team more in depth, or just add more weekly posts other than the just the SEC predictions. I would love to hear your feedback. If you don't mind, vote in the poll I created at the top of the page. Also, if you want to, leave a comment below or tweet me with your suggestions/reviews of what you thought of the blog this year and what you would like to see in the future. Thanks!

A Look at the SEC Bowl Season

We officially have a rematch in the National Championship game. It's going to be LSU vs. Alabama for the Rematch of the Century, I guess that's what we're going to call it. My only question is if LSU loses, do they get a do over? I'm joking of course, but personally I would have rather seen Oklahoma State get a chance in the title game. Alabama already had their chance and lost, at home nonetheless. Oklahoma State has more top wins than Alabama, dismantled a good Oklahoma team in the Big 12 Championship, and their only loss came the day after a tragic plane accident shook the entire university. But I'll get off my soap box now. 


The SEC had 9 of its 12 teams make to bowl games this year. It should have been 10 if Tennessee did not blow it against Kentucky in its last game of the year. The only teams not to make it to bowls were Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Tennessee. It has been a very good year for the conference, punctuated by two of its teams making it in the National Championship. That guarantees that the National Champion will be an SEC team for the sixth straight year.


Let's try our hand at some predictions...


Music City Bowl (Dec. 30)
Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State
Mississippi State didn't quite live up to its preseason expectations and finished the season losing four of its last five. Both teams finished 6-6 just barely making postseason play. Mississippi State has not been good this season, but appear to be the stronger team in this particular matchup. 
    Prediction: Mississippi State 21-13


Liberty Bowl (Dec. 31)
Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt will be playing in its first bowl game since 2008. That is a big accomplishment for first year coach James Franklin. Cincinnati has a better record than the Commodores, but that doesn't mean much being that Cincy plays in the weak Big East. Vanderbilt will be ready to play this game and will get its third bowl victory in its history.
    Prediction: Vanderbilt 28-24


Chick-fil-A Bowl (Dec. 31)
Virginia vs. #25 Auburn 

Freshman Tre Mason will take over RB
duties after Mike Dyer's suspension

Auburn has had a tumultuous few weeks since the end of the regular season. Defensive coordinator Ted Roof left to take the same job at UCF, offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has accepted the head coaching position at Arkansas State, and star running back Michael Dyer has been suspended indefinitely for violating team rules. Michael Dyer's absence will hurt the Tigers, but they have capable backups in homerun threats Onterrio McCalebb and Tre Mason. Gus Malzahn will coach one final game for Auburn, but Ted Roof will not be coaching this game. Instead, head coach Gene Chizik has taken over defensive coordinator duties for the time being. Look for a renewed sense of enthusiasm on defense with Chizik manning the unit and also expect Gus Malzahn to empty his playbook for one last show. The Tigers take the orange and blue showdown.
    Prediction: Auburn 31-23


Gator Bowl (Jan. 2)
Ohio State vs. Florida
Some in the media have dubbed this one the "Urban Bowl" as Urban Meyer's old team, Florida, takes on Ohio State, who he has agreed to coach next season. Florida lost its offensive coordinator Charlie Weis to a head coach position at Kansas, and the Gators will have a different coach calling plays for the bowl game. Ohio State has a lame duck staff with Urban Meyer appointed as the new head man. There are many issues with both teams, but Ohio State will take this game as the Buckeyes will play hard for Luke Fickell's last game as the head coach.
    Prediction: Ohio State 21-17


Outback Bowl (Jan. 2)

Georgia QB Aaron Murray

#17 Michigan State vs. #16 Georgia
Michigan State is coming off a ten win season and is very experienced. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has been one of the best in the Big Ten over the past few years. However, Georgia had a ten win season of its own and quarterback Aaron Murray will be looking to punctuate it with a bowl win. Both teams have top defenses, Georgia is ranked third in total defense and Michigan State is two spots below at fifth. Georgia wins in a tight one.
    Prediction: Georgia 24-21


Capital One Bowl (Jan. 2)
#20 Nebraska vs. #9 South Carolina
Both teams have shown flashes at times and have struggled at others. South Carolina QB Connor Shaw has played well in his last few games and will try to build on that success in the bowl game. Nebraska has shown the ability to run the ball, averaging 223 yards per game, but South Carolina's defense is stout and is ranked fourth in the nation in total defense. South Carolina wins this one.
    Prediction: South Carolina 24-17


Cotton Bowl (Jan. 6)
#8 Kansas State vs. #6 Arkansas
Kansas State has played well for most of this season. Dual threat quarterback Collin Klein has been a man among boys at times with 1745 yards passing, 1099 yards rushing, and 28 total touchdowns. However, Arkansas's offense is about as high powered as they come, averaging 37.4 points and 445.8 yards per game. Arkansas will be able to outscore the Wildcats and do enough on defense to earn the victory.
    Prediction: Arkansas 31-21


BCS National Championship (Jan. 9)
#2 Alabama vs. #1 LSU
The rematch for all the marbles. LSU won the much talked about first matchup 9-6 in overtime. That game featured several Alabama special teams miscues, including four missed field goals. It was played in Alabama's house, and LSU was still able to win. This game is on a neutral field and is close to Baton Rouge, but that's not likely to matter as it will probably be a 50-50 crowd split. It is always difficult to beat any team twice in a season, and especially a team as talented as Alabama. Nonetheless, I predicted LSU to be in the National Championship this past summer, and I expect them to win it now just as I did then. However, I do expect this game to be more high scoring than the first. LSU's vaunted secondary will make it difficult for Alabama QB AJ McCarron to move the ball, and their front seven will be able to corral Trent Richardson enough to win. LSU is as talented as it gets and has won its last two National Championships at the Sugar Bowl, and the Tigers will get another on January 9th. 
    Prediction: LSU 20-17




Lucas's Season Record: 85-15

A Look at the SEC Championship

Last week I was 6-2 with my predictions. Tennessee unexpectedly lost to Kentucky, which was the first time the Wildcats have beaten the Vols since 1984. This is a definite low point for the Vols program, and it has a lot of people doubting the direction it is going under head coach Derek Dooley. I also predicted that Clemson would beat South Carolina, but was incorrect. Clemson has really worn down as the season has gone on. They do not look like the same team they did at the beginning of the year, and I think they will lose to Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship.

Now let's take a look at Week 14...

The SEC Championship

Morris Claiborne leads a talented
LSU defensive backfield.

#14 Georgia at #1 LSU (4:00 PM, CBS): This game surprisingly has very little meaning in the National Championship scheme this year. BCS Experts believe that LSU is so far ahead, that even if the Tigers were to lose they would still be ranked #1 or #2 and be in the National Championship. But I doubt that is what LSU is thinking about, as they want to be able to hoist that SEC Championship trophy up on Saturday. LSU is better than Georgia in all facets of the game other than quarterback. Georgia has cruised to an SEC East title by not playing any of the top three teams in the West, and I think that has given the Bulldogs a false sense of security. Their confidence is sky high right now, but they are simply not a better team than LSU. Georgia's defense has played really well this season, and Georgia is a hot team right now. After losing their first two games, the Bulldogs have rattled off 10 wins in a row. However, as good as UGA's defense is, LSU's is that much better, and the Tigers have more depth on that side of the ball. Look for LSU to shut down Georgia's offense. The game may be close at halftime, but eventually LSU's talent and depth advantage will wear down the Bulldogs and they will pull out the win. As LSU showed against Arkansas last week, they are just that good. Look for quarterback Aaron Murray to turn the ball over against LSU's talented secondary and LSU's quarterback Jordan Jefferson will make just enough plays to get the victory.
     Prediction: LSU 27-17

Lucas's Week 13 Record: 6-2
Lucas's Season Record: 84-15

A Look at Week 13 in the SEC

Last week I was 7-1 bringing my season total to 78-13 heading into the final week of the regular season. The only game I missed was Vanderbilt-Tennessee, which had a wacky ending with a Tennessee interception in overtime ending the game. So I was close, but no cigar. There were so many upsets outside of the SEC, that the SEC West now features the #1, 2, and 3 teams in the nation. Talk about a strong division.

Week 13 brings the best slate of games that I believe we have seen all season. It's rivalry week, and so you know that there is a lot on the line for these teams. You never know what may happen in rivalry games, as unexpected upsets seem to be the norm and games are usually always close, even when the game features two teams who don't look that close on paper. It should be a great weekend...

Game of the Week

LSU QB Jordan Jefferson

#3 Arkansas at #1 LSU (Friday, 2:30 PM, CBS): Game of the Century #2? Quite possibly. It helps that LSU will have this game at home, but this is the final test of the regular season for the Bengal Tigers, and it will be a tough one. Arkansas has been playing really well lately, and have vastly improved since they played Alabama in Week 4 of the season. However, LSU is really hot as well. They were beating Ole Miss so badly last week that they decided to take a knee with five minutes left in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson has taken over the starting role from Jarrett Lee after Lee threw two picks against Alabama, and Jefferson has not looked back. However, this will be his first major test as the starter. I think he passes the test and the Tigers will hold true to my prediction that they will be in the national title game this year. Death Valley and LSU's top-two defense will be too much for the Razorbacks.
    Prediction: LSU 27-24

Top Tier Games
#2 Alabama at #24 Auburn (3:30 PM, CBS): The Iron Bowl. The biggest rivalry in sports. This game will decide bragging rights in the state of Alabama for the next 364 days. Alabama has a lot on the line, as they are looking to try and lock up the #2 spot in the polls to be able to play a rematch against LSU in the National Title game. Or, they also still have the potential to make it to the SEC championship should LSU lose to Arkansas or Georgia. I won't get into all the tie breaker rules, but just know that it is still a possibility. Auburn has not been playing well lately. The Tigers were throttled by Georgia two weeks ago, and did not have the most impressive of showings against Samford last weekend.
      However, one strength of Ted Roof's Auburn defense over the years has been the ability to stop the power run game, which Alabama relies heavily on. For example, Auburn held talented South Carolina running back Marcus Lattimore to an average 49.5 yards per game the last two years and also held Alabama to an average of 69 rushing yards per game as a team in 2009-2010. Auburn will have a similar gameplan in place in hopes to stop Heisman candidate Trent Richardson, who is averaging 125 yards rushing per game this season. That it is a tall order, but I think that they will accomplish it to an extent, making this game closer than a lot of the experts think. Nevertheless, it is going to be near impossible for an Auburn offense that has really struggled this year to score on Alabama's top ranked defense. Auburn's offensive line has just been plain bad, and that will not change this week as I expect Alabama's defensive line and linebackers to dominate the line of scrimmage. The only thing stopping this from being a total blowout is that it is the Iron Bowl, and it is at Auburn.
      Prediction: Alabama 27-10

#17 Clemson at #12 South Carolina (7:45 PM, ESPN): This should be an excellent matchup. Clemson was poised to make a run at a National Championship appearance this year before Georgia Tech derailed their dreams a few weeks ago, and then NC State unexpectedly demolished the Tigers this past week. South Carolina's defense has been phenomenal, but their offense has been very suspect. QB Connor Shaw is not quite as developed as a passer as they had hoped, and losing Marcus Lattimore for the season has also placed a strain on the offensive production. Clemson's offense will be able to find ways to score on South Carolina's defense, and South Carolina will not be able to keep up offensively. Clemson will simply outscore South Carolina for the victory.
     Prediction: Clemson 28-21

#13 Georgia at #23 Georgia Tech (12:00 PM, ESPN): This is a battle to be the state of Georgia's best team, and the game is usually a fight. Georgia is playing in hopes that they can sneak into a BCS bowl. The Bulldogs did not play very well against Kentucky last week, but look for them to rebound and improve from that performance as they try to stifle Paul Johnson's unique triple option attack.
     Prediction: Georgia 27-21

Florida State at Florida (7:00 PM, ESPN2): These two teams have fallen out of national relevance, but that doesn't diminish the importance that both programs will place on this game. Florida State is coming off a disappointing loss to Virginia, and Florida allowed Furman to score 22 points in the first quarter last week. Florida State has the #7 ranked defense in the country in terms of total defense, and that will be too much for a Florida team that has struggled with its offense lately.
    Predicition: Florida State 24-13

The Rest
Vanderbilt at Wake Forest (3:30 PM, CBS): Vanderbilt just can't get any breaks. They have lost narrowly in several games now, including last week's overtime loss to Tennessee. If quarterback Jordan Rodgers can take care of the football, the Commodores will win this game against a sneaky Wake Forest team. Vanderbilt will finally get over the proverbial hump this week with a victory, and become bowl eligible for the first time since 2008.
    Prediction: Vanderbilt 31-28

Tennessee at Kentucky (12:21 PM, SEC Network): Tennessee got a lot of momentum from the return of quarterback Tyler Bray last week. He made a huge difference in the offensive performance, throwing for 189 yards and two touchdowns and leading the Vols to victory. Most importantly, he got the ball to wide receiver Da'Rick Rogers's hands, who is one of UT's best playmakers. Rogers cashed in, catching 10 passes for 116 yards and two touchdowns. Kentucky is the worst team in the SEC East. The Wildcats only have one SEC win so far this season, and this week will not bring their second. Tennessee will win and become bowl eligible in their last chance to do so.
    Prediction: Tennessee 31-13

Ole Miss at Mississippi State (7:00 PM, ESPNU): This game has not mattered on a national scale in a long time. Ole Miss is really bad this year, but Mississippi State isn't a whole lot better. Mississippi State had high expectations coming into the year after a nine win 2009, but has not lived up to the hype by only winning five games including only one SEC win. However, Mississippi State is good enough to win this year's Egg Bowl and will get its sixth win for the chance to go to a lower tier bowl game.
     Prediction: Mississippi State 27-17
*All Times Eastern

Lucas's Week 12 Record: 7-1
Lucas's Season Record: 78-13

A Look at Week 12 in the SEC

    Last week I had one of my worst weeks of the season. I was 5-2 and missed severely on the Auburn-Georgia game. Georgia destroyed Auburn in all aspects of the game, something I didn't not see happening. I gave way too much credence to Georgia's soft schedule and didn't place enough importance on how hot Georgia has been as a team recently. If the Bulldogs can take care of business against Kentucky this week they will win the SEC East. The other game I missed was Ole Miss-LA Tech. Ole Miss could not even win their homecoming game, and that was something I did not predict. Ole Miss' program is in shambles, and they will need a quality head coach to help turn the program around.

   This week's slate of games incredibly disappointing. There are zero marquee matchups, but it will pick back up again next week.

   On to Week 12...

Game of the Week

Vanderbilt QB Jordan Rodgers

Vanderbilt at Tennessee (7:00 PM, ESPNU): This game is potentially big for both teams. Vanderbilt needs to win this game to become bowl eligible, and Tennessee needs to win this week and next week against Kentucky to reach bowl eligibility status. Tyler Bray is reportedly supposed to be back for this game, but how well he will play is remaining to be seen. Vanderbilt has been playing well recently. The 'Dores played Georgia, Arkansas, and Florida close and then absolutely dismantled Kentucky last week. Quarterback Jordan Rodgers has sparked this team since he began starting and has them really playing well. Bray will most likely rusty and not as effective as the Vols need him to be in order to win. Vanderbilt has been playing well as of late and Tennessee has been just the opposite. Vanderbilt goes into Neyland and wins.
     Prediction: Vanderbilt 24-20


Second Tier Games
Mississippi State at #6 Arkansas (3:30 PM, CBS): Mississippi State is 1-5 in the SEC and has not performed up to their high expectations coming into the year. Arkansas has been streaking and dominated Tennessee last week 49-7. Mississippi State's defense is no match for Arkansas' passing offense led by junior quarterback Tyler Wilson.
    Prediction: Arkansas 31-17

Kentucky at #14 Georgia (12:21 PM, SEC Network): Georgia played its most complete game of the season against Auburn last week. They dominated in every facet of the game and cruised to a blowout win. If the Bulldogs do not slip up this week they will win the SEC East and get to be in the SEC Championship against either Alabama, Arkansas, or LSU, depending on how LSU does against Arkansas next week. They won't slip up.
    Prediction: Georgia 35-7

#1 LSU at Ole Miss (7:00 PM, ESPN): LSU needs to win this week and next week against Arkansas to clinch the SEC West. They will not have any problem winning this week against the worst team in the SEC.
    Prediction: LSU 42-3

Samford at #24 Auburn (1:00 PM, PPV): There actually is an interesting story line in this game. Samford's offensive coordinator is Rhett Lashlee, who was a graduate assistant under Auburn's offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn for a number of years including last year's National Championship run. Lashlee is trying to run his version of Gus' hurry up no huddle offense and has improved Samford's offense by gaining almost 50 more yards and 12 more points per game this year than in 2010. However, Samford has no chance against an Auburn team looking to avenge last week's embarrassment against UGA.
   Prediction: Auburn 42-13

The Rest
Furman at Florida (1:00 PM, PPV): Florida 35-7
Georgia Southern at #3 Alabama (2:00 PM, PPV): Alabama 56-3
*All Times Eastern


Lucas's Week 11 Record: 5-2
Lucas's Season Record: 71-12

A Look at Week 11 in the SEC

    The game of the century ended up being the tale of three field goal kickers. Alabama missed four field goals and ended up losing in overtime. I said last week that I expected the game to be low scoring, but even I did not expect it to be that low scoring. However, it was the defensive battle one would expect in a game featuring two elite defenses. Alabama had plenty of chances to win the game, but made a few critical mistakes that cost them the game.
    My predictions were 6-1 last week with the only mistake being in the Ole Miss-Kentucky game. Kentucky's freshman quarterback Maxwell Smith made his first start and gave Kentucky needed improvement in the passing game, throwing for 283 yards and two touchdowns leading them to a 30-13 win. Overall, I'm having a decent season. I improved to 66-10 on the year after Week 10, and I am currently ahead of both ESPN SEC bloggers. Without the three non-SEC games that I predicted I am 64-9. In comparison, ESPN's Chris Low is 61-12 and Edward Aschoff is 63-10. Let's hope I can keep the lead this week.

    On to Week 11...

Game of the Week

Sophomore QB Clint Moseley is the key to
Auburn's success against Georgia

#20 Auburn at #15 Georgia (3:30 PM, CBS): Auburn has had two weeks to prepare for "The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry" and it's not exactly like Georgia was challenged in its lopsided victory against New Mexico State last week. Both teams will be geared up and ready to go for this game. Georgia is looking to avenge the 49-31 beat-down it suffered against Auburn last year, and Auburn would like to add another game to its lead in the all time series, which currently stands at 54-52-8 in Auburn's favor. Georgia has the possibility of clinching the SEC East with a win and a South Carolina loss this week. They key to this game could be both teams' abilities to stop the run. Auburn's game plan against virtually every team is to get in a rhythm running the ball early and often. Georgia has the most success when it can establish the run and QB Aaron Murray can work  off of play action.
     Georgia's defense has been impressive as of late, but the level of competition it has been going up against is debatable. Aaron Murray has been hot lately as well, throwing for ten touchdowns in his last three games. However, the biggest question mark and factor in this week's outcome will be the performance of Auburn's sophomore quarterback Clint Moseley. As he goes, so do the Tigers. Auburn won't be able to run the ball at will on the Bulldogs' stout run defense and will have to rely on Moseley to play well and threaten UGA through the air. Moseley looked decent against LSU when he was given time to throw and improved against Ole Miss completing 12 of 15 passes, four going for touchdowns. Junior wide receiver Emory Black was back from injury against Ole Miss after missing the past three and a half games and made a dramatic difference in the success of Auburn's passing offense. Blake racked up five catches for 71 yards and a touchdown. He gives the Tigers the ability to stretch the field that they greatly missed in his absence. I think Moseley will build on his Ole Miss performance and lead Auburn to a close victory. Also, don't forget that head coach Gene Chizik is undefeated at Auburn in games decided by four points or less. He will add another win to that column this weekend.
    Prediction: Auburn 24-21

The Others
Florida at #13 South Carolina (12:00 PM, CBS): South Carolina needs a victory this weekend to insure that it doesn't get knocked out of the race for the SEC East division title. Florida is coming off a game where the Gators were able to just squeak by Vanderbilt. Both teams have struggled on offense as of late. South Carolina's QB Connor Shaw suffered a concussion last week against Arkansas and Florida's QB John Brantley is not 100% right now. This game will come down to who plays better on defense, and there is no doubt that South Carolina is the answer to that question. South Carolina will be able to pull out the victory with tough defensive play.
    Prediction: South Carolina 24-17

Tennessee at #8 Arkansas (6:00 PM, ESPN2): Tennesse has really struggled on offense since Tyler Bray went down with an injury against Georgia. The Vols were able to beat MTSU 24-0 last week, but simply do not have the firepower to match up against a potent Arkansas offense. Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson is coming off one of his best games of the season throwing for 299 yards and two touchdowns against a good South Carolina defense. One of Tennessee's biggest weaknesses is its secondary, and that will be a big problem when facing an Arkansas passing attack that is ranked 9th best in the nation.
    Prediction: Arkansas: 31-10

Kentucky at Vanderbilt (12:21 PM, SEC Network): Kentucky got their first SEC win of the season against Ole Miss last week and looked to be somewhat improved on offense. Vanderbilt has played a number of close games in the SEC this season, but just hasn't been able to quite get over the hump. Junior quarterback Jordan Rodgers has been playing well, and he will get his first SEC win as a starter this week.
    Prediction: Vanderbilt 28-20


#3 Alabama at Mississippi State (7:45 PM, ESPN): Alabama is going to be angry after losing its grip on a BCS National Championship berth last week. I expect their defense to come out and be the suffocating unit we have come to know over the course of this year. Mississippi State will most likely try to replicate part of LSU's game plan by running the option to the outside with dual threat quarterback Chris Relf. LSU had success getting to the perimeter against Alabama's big linebackers, and MSU's personnel suits that style of offense as well. However, that will not be near enough.
    Prediction: Alabama 31-13


Louisiana Tech at Ole Miss (7:30 PM, CSS): Ole Miss announced this week that head coach Houston Nutt will not be retained after the season. As a result, this game could go one of two ways. Either they will be completely inspired to win for the coach that recruited them to come to Ole Miss, or they will be totally distracted by the announcement of his imminent dismissal. My guess is the former. Ole Miss will win, but it will be close.
    Prediction: Ole Miss 28-24

Western Kentucky at #1 LSU (7:00 PM, ESPNU): LSU may have clinched a spot in the National Championship by defeating Alabama, but they do have one more difficult test in the final game of the season against Arkansas. However, they should cruise until then as they have Western Kentucky and SEC bottom-feeder Ole Miss over the next two weeks.
    Prediction: LSU 44-6
*All Times Eastern

Lucas's Week 10 Record: 6-1
Lucas's Season Record: 66-10

A Look at Week 10 in the SEC

   My picks were 5-0 last week. Georgia beat Florida in the game of the week and were able to stay alive in the race for the SEC East, but will need some help from other SEC teams to overtake South Carolina and reach the SEC Championship game. South Carolina pulled out a win in Knoxville, which is never an easy task, and Arkansas scraped by a surging Vanderbilt team.

   Now on to Week 10. Everything has been building up to this week, and it's finally here...

Game of the Week

Nick Saban (left) and Les Miles (right) have been preparing for
this epic showdown all season

#1 LSU at #2 Alabama (8:00 PM, CBS): Clash of the Titans. It's what we have all been waiting for. This game has been billed as the "game of the century" by many. While I don't necessarily agree with that, it definitely is one of the most anticipated regular season matchups in recent memory. There are reports that media credential requests are currently around 600. That is a huge number. Alabama's press box only seats around 150. That goes to show the importance and hype of this monstrous meeting of two SEC giants. In essence, this game could be considered the de facto national championship, as whichever team wins this game will have a good chance to go undefeated the rest of the way until the actual National Championship in January. Alabama has one big edge being the home field team. These teams to be very evenly matched as they both feature similar strengths. Both are very strong on defense (Alabama is ranked first nationally in total defense, LSU is fourth), and both feature solid rushing attacks (both are in the top 30 in rushing yards per game). However, LSU seems to be more complete. With two seasoned quarterbacks in seniors Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson leading the way, LSU's offense has the edge over Alabama. Couple strong quarterback play with talented receivers Reuben Randle and Odell Beckham, LSU can throw on you if they need to, and I don't have as much confidence in Alabama's ability to do that. I think this game will show just how much the Crimson Tide misses Julio Jones and what he was able to do for the Tide's offense that they lack this year. Their only big time receiver is Marquis Maze, who will be the focus of the vaunted LSU secondary.
   LSU is also more tested than Alabama. LSU dismantled Oregon in the season opener, who by the way are 7-1 on the season and ranked #8 in the nation. They also beat West Virginia, Florida, and Auburn easily. Alabama has signature wins over Penn State, Arkansas, and Florida, and although they are impressive, they are not as quite as impressive as LSU's victories.
    Alabama does have a very good running back in junior Heisman candidate Trent Richardson. Richardson is tied with Auburn's Michael Dyer as the top rusher in the SEC and has looked quite impressive over the course of the season. However, LSU has two quality backs in sophomores Michael Ford and Spencer Ware who will run over and around you at any given moment.
    I chose LSU to win the National Championship this summer, and there is no way I am deviating from that prediction now. I expect this game to be a defensive slug-fest and very low scoring, but "The Hat" Les Miles will find a way to pull out the victory in then end.
    Prediction: LSU 17-13

Top Tier Games
#9 South Carolina at #7 Arkansas (7:15 PM, ESPN): This game features a top ten matchup with two teams that have been somewhat struggling as of late. South Carolina was able to eek out wins against Mississippi State and Tennesse, and now no longer have running back Marcus Lattimore. However, freshman Brandon Wilds filled in admirably in his absence last week against Tennessee and was able to run for 137 yards on 28 carries. He is no Marcus Lattimore, but Wilds is definitely a threat to an Arkansas defense that is giving up 131 yards per game on the ground. Arkansas narrowly escaped getting beat by both Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, two teams who would seem to be over-matched against Arkansas on paper. However, expect Arkansas to play up to their competition this week.This will be South Carolina's first real test without Lattimore and it will not go as well as the game against Tennessee. Home field advantage gives Arkansas the edge, and the Razorbacks will be able to pull out a victory against the Gamecocks.
    Prediction: Arkansas 27-13

Vanderbilt at Florida (12:15 PM, SEC Network): Vanderbilt has played its last two SEC opponents, Georgia and Arkansas, very close and look to be a team that is on the rise. Junior quarterback Jordan Rodgers, while not throwing for a lot of yards, has averaged just over 80 yards rushing since he took over as the starter three games ago. Junior running back Zac Stacy has added the running threat that Vandy needed and has really come on strong, averaging 141 yards rushing over the last three games. However, Florida had running back Jeff Demps and quarterback John Brantley return from injury against UGA last week, and both made and a noticeable difference in the production of the offense. Demps had a long catch for 72 yards and Brantley threw for 245 yards and a touchdown. Those two re-additions combined with Florida's home field advantage in The Swamp will allow them to win this game.
    Prediction: Florida 24-14

The Rest
Ole Miss at Kentucky (3:30 PM, ESPNU): The battle for the worst team in the SEC is on. Ole Miss has looked somewhat better the last two weeks, playing Auburn close in the first half and requiring Arkansas to come back from a 17 point deficit to beat them. Kentucky has not showed any glimmer of hope at any point in their season.
    Prediction: Ole Miss 21-17


New Mexico State at #18 Georgia (12:30 PM, CSS): Georgia had to suspend tailbacks Isaiah Crowell, Carlton Thomas, and Ken Malcome after all three failed drug tests and also have tailback Richard Samuel out with an injury. That only leaves former walk-on Brandon Harton and walk-on Kyle Karempelis as the only ones left to handle all of the carries. But it is New Mexico State after all, so that won't matter. 
     Prediction: Georgia 31-13


Middle Tennesse at Tennessee (7 PM, FSS): This game will be a much better scenario for freshman quarterback Justin Worley to get his feet under him than last week against South Carolina turned out to be. The Vols turned to Worley for the first time last week, and he completed 10 of 26 passes for 105 yards and two interceptions. Hopefully he will be able to find more of a rhythm against the Blue Raiders as the Vols roll to victory.
     Prediction: Tennessee 31-13


UT Martin at Mississippi State (7:30 PM, CSS): Mississippi State was able to get their first SEC victory against Kentucky last week, but still need a few more victories to become bowl eligible. Most likely the Egg Bowl against Ole Miss will determine whether or not the Bulldogs have a postseason this year. MSU wins easily over UT Martin as they inch closer to a bowl berth.
    Prediction: Mississippi State 34-16
*All Times Eastern

Lucas's Week 9 Record: 5-0
Lucas's Season Record: 60-9


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A Look at Week 9 in the SEC

    Last week's games were very underwhelming. Everyone that was expected to take care of business, did. I did not expect Auburn to get blown out like they did, but I guess that's what happens when you have a very young team and start a new quarterback against the best team in the country. Both Alabama and LSU remain unscathed going into their bye weeks and are primed for the matchup that everyone has been talking about on November 5th. I also did not expect Arkansas to struggle as much as they did against Ole Miss. Ole Miss was leading 17-0 at one point and the Razorbacks had to climb back to win 29-24. I think it's safe to say that Arkansas was underestimating the Rebels.

    I was 5-0 last week, but most of the games had heavy favorites and that made it a fairly easy week to pick. On to Week 9....

Game of the Week

Georgia's Aaron Murray

Florida vs. #22 Georgia (3:30 PM, CBS): Florida comes into this game with questions about the health of starting quarterback John Brantley. He has missed the last two games after suffering a leg injury to Alabama. He had the bye last week to recover, and Florida head coach Will Muschamp expects him to play Saturday. That will provide a big boost for the Gators as they take on Georgia. The Bulldogs have been playing better each week and their defense has been shining as of late, only giving up 12.6 points per game over their last five games. That's a vast improvement from a team who allowed Boise State and South Carolina to put up a combined 80 points. Brantley hasn't played in three and a half weeks and is most likely not going to be 100 percent even if he does play. Georgia's defense will carry them and sophomore quarterback Aaron Murray will do just enough for the Bulldogs to pull out a close one. 
    Prediction: Georgia 24-21


The Others

USC's Alshon Jeffery

#13 South Carolina at Tennessee (7:15 PM, ESPN2): There is no doubt that South Carolina will look like a completely different team without stud sophomore running back Marcus Lattimore, who was lost for the season after hurting his knee against Mississippi State two weeks ago. That fact alone will cause this game to be much closer than it would have been otherwise. However, Tennessee has decided to start true freshman quarterback Justin Worley and pull his redshirt instead of playing struggling senior Matt Simms for another game. South Carolina's defense is solid, and their stellar defensive line should take advantage of the Vols' true freshman as he throws his first collegiate passes Saturday. I expect a big game from South Carolina's junior wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, who will be facing a very weak Tennessee secondary.
    Prediction: South Carolina 28-17

#10 Arkansas at Vanderbilt (12:21 PM, SEC Network): Arkansas surprisingly struggled with Ole Miss last weekend and had to come from behind to earn the victory. Don't expect them to make the same mistake twice. The Razorbacks will try to rebound from their poor performance against the Rebels and beat the Commodores on the road. Vanderbilt pounded Army 44-21 behind junior quarterback Jordan Rodgers, who had 186 yards passing and almost 100 yards rushing. Rodgers has provided a much needed spark to Vanderbilt's offense, but it is their defense that will struggle the most this week. It's not likely that the 'Dores will be able to stop quarterback Arkansas Tyler Wilson and his multitude of options through the air.
    Prediction: Arkansas 35-17

Ole Miss at #23 Auburn (7:00 PM, ESPNU): The Rebels made it tough on Arkansas last weekend and will try to continue their improvement against Auburn. Auburn was thrashed by #1 LSU, and will not want to let that loss bleed into this game. Look for Auburn to come out mad and hungry for a victory after being humiliated by LSU. It remains to be seen whether star wide receiver Emory Blake will be playing after missing the last few weeks with an ankle injury, but it shouldn't matter for the Tigers' chances to win this game. Head coach Gene Chizik is 18-2 at home during his Auburn tenure. This game could look very simliar to their matchup in 2009 when Auburn beat Ole Miss 33-20 and dominated most of the game after getting destroyed by LSU 31-10 the week before. I expect Clint Moseley to find his groove against the Ole Miss defense and Auburn will get its sixth victory of the season and thus become bowl eligible.
    Prediction: Auburn 28-13

Mississippi State at Kentucky (7:00 PM, FSN): One of these teams will get its first SEC victory this weekend. Kentucky beat up on FCS opponent Jacksonville State 38-14 last week and Mississippi State lost on a last second Alshon Jeffery touchdown to South Carolina 14-12 in their last game two weeks ago. Mississippi State has shown more the first half of the season, and Kentucky lacks any semblance of a passing game. Mississippi State is the better of two bad teams.The Bulldogs will get their first conference win.
    Prediction: Mississippi State 24-17

Lucas's Week 8 Record: 5-0
Lucas's Season Record: 55-9

A Look at Week 8 in the SEC

    The biggest news from last week was the injury that South Carolina's superstar running back Marcus Lattimore sustained against Mississippi State. He tore ligaments in his knee and is out for the season. That is a big blow to USC's chances of returning to the SEC Championship. Lattimore meant everything to that team. Without him, they have no running threat and that will make it much harder for quarterback Connor Shaw to get the ball to wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. The Gamecocks still control their own destiny, but have tough games against Arkansas and Florida left on their schedule. It's not over yet, however, as the team chasing them, Georgia, has yet to play Florida and Auburn. It looks as though Florida will have starting QB John Brantley return from injury before their contest with the Bulldogs, and that will make the Gators a much tougher opponent.

    My picks were 5-1 last week with my only loss being the out of conference game I picked between Baylor and Texas A&M. I thought Baylor would win with their high-powered offense, but Texas A&M took them to the woodshed. However, with five correct picks I moved to the half century mark in victories on the season. For comparison's sake, without the three out of conference games I've picked I am 48-8 on the season. ESPN's SEC bloggers Chris Low and Edward Aschoff are 46-10 and 49-7, respectively. Here's to hoping that I can beat them out in the remaining weeks.

Now on to Week 8...

Game of the Week

LSU will count on backup RB Michael Ford with Ware out.

#20 Auburn at #1 LSU (3:30 PM, CBS): LSU comes into this game boasting the fifth best total defense in the NCAA, and Auburn's offense has been sputtering. Last week, Auburn made the switch at quarterback to redshirt sophomore Clint Moseley at halftime after the offense looked stagnant in the first half. He only threw seven passes as the Tigers were content to run the ball and play defense against a weak Florida offense. Although he didn't get many opportunities, Moseley provided the spark Auburn needed and was named the starter for the upcoming game against LSU. Death Valley is not exactly ideal for breaking in a new quarterback, and that among many other things does not bode well for Auburn.
    However, Auburn got a big boost in the form of three LSU suspensions. Cornerbacks Tyrann Mathieu and Tharold Simon and starting running back Spencer Ware have been suspended after failing a drug test. Those are three huge blows to LSU's team, as all three are integral parts of LSU's team. Ware is the leading rusher for LSU with 512 yards and six touchdowns, and Mathieu has been a big time playmaker and possible Heisman candidate with four forced fumbles, two interceptions, and two touchdowns. Simon is one of their top three corners and is important to the Tigers' depth on defense. Keep in mind Gene Chizik is 8-0 in his tenure as Auburn's head coach when games are decided by four points or less. Anything can happen if Auburn can keep the game close. However, despite the losses to suspension LSU should still have enough elsewhere to pull off the victory.
    Prediction: LSU 27-20

The Others
Tennessee at #2 Alabama (7:15 PM, ESPN2): Alabama remained undefeated against a hapless Ole Miss team last week. Tennessee struggled against LSU without their starting quarterback Tyler Bray. This matchup is undoubtedly headed for more of the same. Alabama should be able to dominate a struggling Tennessee team on both sides of the ball. 
      Prediction: Alabama 38-10


#9 Arkansas at Ole Miss (12:21 PM, SEC Network): Arkansas had a bye last week and was able to rest up after their 38-14 victory over Auburn in Week 6. Ole Miss was badly beaten by Alabama 52-7. This week looks to be similar as Ole Miss is arguably the worst team in the conference (only challenged by Kentucky for that honor). Arkansas's stud QB Tyler Wilson will air it out all over Ole Miss's secondary. This one won't be much of a contest.
      Prediction: Arkansas 44-6


Army at Vanderbilt (7:00 PM, ESPNU): Vanderbilt has an interesting story in junior quarterback Jordan Rodgers. Jordan transferred to Vanderbilt this year from Butte Junior College in California and is the younger brother of the Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers. Last week, Rodgers came in for senior QB Larry Smith and was able to move the offense somewhat effectively as he ran the ball 11 times for 80 yards. It remains to be seen whether Rodgers or Smith will get the start this week, but either should be able to do the job against an Army team with losses to Northern Illinois, San Diego State, Ball State, and Miami (Ohio). 
      Prediction: Vanderbilt  27-14

Jacksonville State at Kentucky (12:00 PM, ESPNU): Kentucky needs this win badly. The Wildcats are coming off four straight losses and are looking to rebound against an FCS team. Jacksonville State was able to upset Ole Miss last year in a double overtime thriller, but don't expect Kentucky to suffer a similar fate this year.
      Prediction: Kentucky 31-17
*All Times Eastern

Lucas's Week 7 Record: 5-1
Lucas's Season Record: 50-9

A Look at Week 7 in the SEC

       Last week featured few surprises. LSU, Alabama, and South Carolina dominated, Mississippi State struggled with an inferior opponent, and Georgia-Tennessee ended up being a tight one. The only pick missed in Week 6 was Auburn over Arkansas. To be honest, I had a bad feeling about it once I found out that Auburn's leading receiver Emory Blake would not be available for the game. Indeed, their passing game suffered. As a team they were 9-25 passing for 104 yards and three interceptions. It's difficult to win any game in the SEC with those numbers. Not to mention, they had 11 penalties for 105 yards and at least three crucial drops. Arkansas took advantage, piling up 262 passing yards on the way to a 38-14 blowout.
      Georgia's defense showed up well again, and Tyler Bray broke the base of the thumb on his throwing hand and may be out for the rest of the season. To add insult to injury, Tauren Poole injured his hamstring and is out for this week at least. That was recipe for a 20-12 UGA victory. UGA will still need a little help if they want to win the East, however, as they lost the head-to-head battle against South Carolina in Week 2.

Now on to Week 7....

Game of the Week

Florida's freshman QB Jacoby Brissett

Florida at #24 Auburn (7:00 PM, ESPN): Both teams come into this game with a 4-2 record. Auburn's passing game has been very suspect the past three or four games, and that's something they will look to get corrected. Barrett Trotter will remain the starting quarterback this week, but you have to figure he will have a short leash. If he struggles after the first quarter or so we may see Clint Moseley get his first real action - but will it be too late? Auburn has really shown the ability to pound the ball on the ground, and if they can get some semblance of a passing game they may be able to win 8 games this year. Florida will be without starting quarterback John Brantley once again, and it looks like true freshman Jacoby Brissett is the favorite to start this weekend. Brissett got his first start against LSU last Saturday and completed 8 of 14 passes for 94 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. He will be entering another hostile environment, which does not bode well for Florida. According to auburnsports.com's Justin Hokanson, since 2000 Auburn is 23-4 in night games at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The true freshman quarterback will definitely be tested. Also, Florida has given up 464 rushing yards in their two losses, which plays right into Auburn's strength. Look for Auburn to pound it out on the ground and get a score or two from Michael Dyer, as well as taking advantage of Florida's mistakes on offense. This will be a close one, and both teams are on the ropes, but Auburn's home field advantage will allow them to escape with a victory despite a basically even matchup.
     Prediction: Auburn 27 Florida 23

Second Tier Games
#1 LSU at Tennessee (3:30 PM, CBS): LSU travels to Neyland Stadium to take on the Vols. This game has all the makings of a blowout as LSU's tenacious defense will be coming after a Tennessee offense without QB Tyler Bray, RB Tauren Poole, and WR Justin Hunter. Tennessee doesn't seem to have much of a chance without their top playmakers at all three skill positions. LSU is still on course to remain undefeated when they face off with an undefeated Alabama for a pseudo National Championship of sorts on November 5th. LSU fans just hope Les Miles's loyalty to Jordan Jefferson won't mess things up in the meantime. LSU in a romp.
     Prediction: LSU 44 Tennessee 10


#15 South Carolina at Mississippi State (12:21 PM, SEC Network): South Carolina was able to ignite its passing game last week against Kentucky by turning to sophomore QB Connor Shaw. Shaw was promoted to QB1 after Garcia had another poor showing against Auburn the previous week. The move seemed to have really worked as Shaw threw for 311 yards and 4 touchdowns. Granted it was Kentucky, but the offense looked better than it had with Garcia at the helm against similarly weak opponents ECU and Navy. Garcia is apparently no longer an option as he was reportedly kicked off the team. South Carolina will try to build on last week's momentum as they take on a struggling Mississippi State team. Last week, Mississippi State trailed UAB 3-0 at the half, but put in backup Tyler Russell for the second half and he threw three TDs in the second half for the bulldogs. It remains to be seen which quarterback will start this week for MSU, but neither will be enough to defeat South Carolina.
     Prediction: South Carolina 34 Mississippi State 17


Georgia at Vanderbilt (7:00 PM, FSS): Georgia was able to pull out a win last week on the road in Neyland Stadium, which is always a tough place to play. Freshman RB Isaiah Crowell impressed again, running for 58 yards and two key touchdowns. Vanderbilt has been struggling mightily since starting 3-0 as they have not scored a touchdown in their last two games. Georgia should be able to handle them pretty easily.
    Prediction: Georgia 31 Vanderbilt 6


#2 Alabama at Ole Miss (6:00 PM, ESPN2): Is there even any question as to who will win this game? Ole Miss is challenging Kentucky to be the worst team in the SEC, and Alabama is challenging LSU to be the best team in the SEC. Ole Miss fans should probably just stay in The Grove during this game because it won't be pretty.
    Prediction: Alabama 47 Ole Miss 3

Bonus Non-SEC Game

Can Baylor's Robert Griffin III lead
them to victory over the Aggies?

#20 Baylor at #21 Texas A&M (12:00 PM, FX): We all remember the beginning of the season when Baylor went back and forth with TCU and finally was able to win the game with stellar play from QB Robert Griffin III. Texas A&M has had a string of bad losses giving up big halftime leads to Oklahoma State's and Arkansas's. Baylor's only loss comes at the hands of a talented Kansas State team. Baylor's offense is remarkably similar to that of Oklahoma State and Arkansas, and it has to make you think that they will have similar success against the Aggies. I've tried to find a reason to pick the Texas A&M in this game, but I just don't see how the Aggies will stop Griffin. They will have to battle the "here we go again" mentality even if they have a lead, and that does bode well for them against another high-powered offense.
     Prediction: Baylor 38 Texas A&M 34
*All Times Eastern




Lucas's Week 6 Record: 5-1
Lucas's Season Record: 45-8

A Look at Week 6 in the SEC

Last weeks games featured a major upset in the form of the Auburn Tigers defeating #10 South Carolina. That was an upset that honestly I could see coming because of Steve Spurrier's South Carolina track record of choking at least once a season, but at the time I had no reason to believe that Auburn could play well enough to win. I ended with a 7-1 record last week bringing my season total to 40-7. Hopefully the streak will continue as we have a few intriguing games on tap for this week.

On to Week 6...

Game of the Week

Auburn will look to upset Arkansas this week

#15 Auburn at #10 Arkansas (7:00 PM, ESPN): Auburn's defense improved dramatically last week against South Carolina. They will need a similar performance to defeat a good Arkansas team. Arkansas erases an 18 point halftime deficit to defeat Texas A&M behind a 510 yard effort through the air by quarterback Tyler Wilson. However, Arkansas looked very vulnerable against the run giving up 381 total yards on the ground and 230 to Aggies' running back Christine Michael. Auburn will undoubtedly look to attack the hogs in a similar fashion. Gus Malzahn showed no hesitation in giving Michael Dyer the ball over and over again last week on the way to 41 carries for 141 yards. Auburn will most likely employ a similar game plan this week in effort to control time of possession and keep their defense and Tyler Wilson off the field as much as possible. I also like what Malzahn has done with true freshman QB Kiehl Frazier, who will likely see more and more of the game plan as the season progresses. Frazier has added an element to Auburn's offense that they have needed and enabled them to run the zone read that was such an important play for them last year. As a result, they have been much more effective on third down than they were at the beginning of the season. Auburn pulls off their second upset in as many weeks.
     Prediction: Auburn 31 Arkansas 27

Top Tier Games

Georgia will lean on freshman Isaiah
Crowell against Tennessee

Georgia at Tennessee (7:00 PM, ESPN2): Tennessee lost arguably the best receiver in the SEC to injury against Florida in Justin Hunter. That will really hurt this team, and they have had to rely solely on Da'Rick Rogers, who stepped up excellently against Buffalo on his way to 180 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, Tennessee has not been able to get their running game on track all season, and that limits them at times because they have to rely completely on Tyler Bray, which is a difficult load for any quarterback to carry. Tennessee has only run for 444 yards on the season, which is good enough for last in the SEC and 107th out of 120 FBS teams. Georgia struggled to start the season, but have turned it on as of late, which is in a large part due to the emergence of true freshman running back Isaiah Crowell. Georgia has increased his carries in the last two games, and as a result he ran for 147 and 104 yards, respectively. Getting the running game going is crucial to their success because quarterback Aaron Murray is much better out of the play action than he is as a drop back QB. Although Murray threw 3 interceptions against Mississippi State last week, he will most likely improve that number this week as Tennessee has not been a big threat to intercept the ball this season. They have just 1 interception on the year, which ranks them tied for second to last in the FBS. Georgia will win this game by running the ball and playing solid third down defense.
      Prediction: Georgia 28 Tennessee 24

#17 Florida at #1 LSU (3:30 PM, CBS): On paper this looks like a solid match up between two ranked teams. However, Florida lost QB John Brantley last week to injury against Alabama and he won't play this week against LSU. That means Florida will be throwing true freshman Jeff Driskel into the fire at Death Valley. That doesn't bode well for their chances of success. LSU's vaunted defense has to be licking their chops, and I expect Tyrann Mathieu to remind Driskel that this is no longer high school. It will be interesting to watch exactly how much Les Miles will play Jordan Jefferson this week. He came in last week against Kentucky as a change of pace quarterback and rushed 4 times for 29 yards. I don't think Les Miles will deviate from starting Jarrett Lee yet, and I expect to see Jefferson in a similar change of pace role this week. But I wouldn't be surprised if Jefferson's role increases over the next few games as he clearly wants his starting job back. LSU wins this game with dominating defense against an over-matched Florida offense.
     Prediction: LSU 27 Florida 13

Bottom Tier Games
Kentucky at #18 South Carolina (12:21 PM, SEC Network): South Carolina will try a new quarterback this week after Stephen Garcia threw 2 interceptions and completed just 39% of his passes against Auburn last week. Coach Steve Spurrier is turning to sophomore Connor Shaw in hopes that Shaw can ignite what has turned out to be a stagnant South Carolina offense. Kentucky is the perfect opponent for Shaw to get his feet wet. Kentucky has been challenging Ole Miss as possibly being the worst team in the SEC and have struggled all season.
     Prediction: South Carolina 31 Kentucky 10

Vanderbilt at #2 Alabama (7:00 PM, ESPNU): Vanderbilt has surprised some folks this year with a 3-1 record and wins over Ole Miss and UConn. They won't be surprising anyone this Saturday.
     Prediction: Alabama 31 Vanderbilt 3

Mississippi State at UAB (12:00 PM, FSN): Mississippi State travels to Legion Field to take on the UAB Blazers. The bulldogs will try and get their offense back on track against a poor 0-4 UAB squad.
      Prediction: Mississippi State 27 UAB 7
*All Times Eastern

Lucas' Week 5 Record: 7-1
Lucas' Season Record: 40-7

Auburn's defense stands strong as they shock the Gamecocks

Auburn's Michael Dyer was a big factor
in the victory against South Carolina.

   Auburn pulled off a major upset Saturday, beating the nation's #10 ranked team South Carolina 16-13 on the road. Chizik called the win a "landmark victory" for his Auburn Tigers. Auburn showed a big improvement on the defensive side of the football. A unit that gave up 315 yards against lowly FAU last week limited South Carolina's offense to 289 yards. Most importantly, Auburn keyed in on big time back Marcus Lattimore and only allowed him to gain 66 yards on 17 carries. It was clear that shutting Lattimore down was the focus of Auburn's defensive gameplan.

   Both teams featured lackluster quarterback play. South Carolina's Stephen Garcia completed only 9 of 23 passes for 160 yards and a touchdown and threw two interceptions, but also added 62 yards on the ground on 10 attempts. Auburn's Barrett Trotter completed 12 of 23 passes for 112 yards and a touchdown, but also threw two interceptions. The difference came on the ground. Auburn showed no reservations for feeding running back Mike Dyer the ball, and feeding it to him often. Dyer ran it an astounding 41 times for 141 yards and one touchdown. Auburn's game plan was to lean heavily on Dyer, and that's exactly what they did.

   A big difference in Auburn's play on defense seem to come up front, where Auburn's defensive line looked to play much better. The d-line got penetration all night long and the Tigers had a season high 3 sacks in the game as well as providing pressure on Garcia, forcing a couple of interceptions. The defensive line seemed to collapse in on Lattimore all game as well, keeping him and check and causing him to fumble the ball in the first quarter.

   It's difficult to tell what caused the defense to play so much better than they had in the past. They were much more effective on third down than they had been all season, only allowing the Gamecocks to convert 2 of their 10 third down plays. Part of me wants to believe that Gene Chizik was much more involved with this game plan, and Auburn played more like the Chizik defense of the undefeated 2004 team that we all came to know and love. Whatever it was, Roof and Chizik seemed to be on the same page and it resulted in Auburn turning in their best defensive performance of the season.

Will we see Clint
Moseley next week?

   Going forward there are still a few things that would seemingly need to be addressed. Auburn's most impressive touchdown drive came when Kiehl Frazier rushed the ball 3 times for 33 yards on a possession that started towards the end of the first quarter. He looked quick to hit the hole and the read option plays really worked well with him taking the snaps. You have to think that as the season progresses his role will grow more and more. Barrett Trotter turned in a very poor performance, and Gus seemed to lack confidence in his ability to throw the ball downfield as there were a lot of bubble screens and draws called in third down situations. He did not look like a starting SEC quarterback until he connected with Phillip Lutzenkirchen on the game winning drive in the 4th quarter. He hit Lutzenkirchen for a 9 yard TD in the 4th quarter while standing strong in the face of a Melvin Ingram blitz. That was one of the lone bright spots in Trotter's night. If Malzahn does not think Frazier's passing game is ready for the big time, then Auburn has to give back up Clint Moseley a look in practice this week. It would be hard to believe that he could do much worse than Trotter did in this game.

    If Auburn can keep up this defense and find a way to be more effective on offense, then they will surprise a lot of people who wrote them off after struggling in the first four games of the season.  This young team is growing up in front of our very eyes, and Arkansas should consider themselves warned.