Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Week 2 in the SEC

Well, I ended up being 10-2 with my picks last week, but I missed 2 out of the 3 most difficult games to pick. I knew they would be hard games to predict, and I waffled on them for a while and ended up missing them. But hey, if I go 10-2 every week I will be pretty happy.

Week 2 brings a little bit more excitement than Week 1 did. There should be more close games on the docket for the second week of the season. So without further delay, here is what to expect this week...
Stephen Garcia Stephen Garcia #5 of the South Carolina Gamecocks drops back to pass against against the Arkansas Razorbacks during their game at Williams-Brice Stadium on November 6, 2010 in Columbia, South Carolina.
Georgia vs. South Carolina is the game of the week

Marquee Matchups:

Georgia vs. South Carolina (4:30 PM ET, ESPN): Do not underestimate how big this game is in determining the SEC East. As I said in my Summer SEC East Predictions, this game will most likely decide where both teams end up finishing in the standings. South Carolina unexpectedly struggled for a little bit last week against ECU because Steve Spurrier surprisingly decided to start Connor Shaw over Stephen Garcia. However, once Garcia was inserted into the lineup the Gamecocks' offense immediately started producing. He ran for a 32 yard touchdown on his first drive and after that SC had no problems moving the ball. Georgia, on the other hand, got routed by Boise State in their season opener. Georgia looks to have a lot of problems. The most obvious being their defense. Kellen Moore absolutely carved up their secondary going 28-34 with 261 yard and 3 touchdowns. The second biggest problem for the dogs is their running game. Outside of an 80 yard touchdown run by Brandon Boykin, UGA only had 72 rushing yards on 22 attempts from their top two running backs. Something needs to improve there for them to be successful this season. Look for South Carolina to carve up Georgia's defense with Alshon Jeffrey and Marcus Lattimore.
        Prediction: 28-17 South Carolina

Will Auburn's defense step up
this week?
Auburn vs. Mississippi State (12:21 PM ET, SEC Network): Auburn struggled last week against Utah State, needing an onside kick in the 4th quarter to pull out a victory. It remains to be seen whether that was a one game fluke or a foreshadowing of what's to come for the tigers. Part of their problem this season is their youth. On Saturday Auburn played 22 true and redshirt freshmen against a senior-laden Utah State team, and that proved to be a problem mostly on defense. However, they did show the resiliency of the 2010 National Championship team by coming from behind to win yet again. Mississippi State on the other hand, looked pretty good against Memphis. I don't know how much you can take from that game, being that Memphis was a 1-11 team last year, but nonetheless MSU looked disciplined on defense and solid on offense. This may sound crazy, but I think that Auburn will pull out the victory against the bulldogs this weekend. Last week will serve as a wake up call that work needs to be done for Auburn's young team, and they will make their biggest improvement of the season between last Saturday and this Saturday. That combined with the fact that this game is at Jordan-Hare Stadium means that Auburn will upset MSU for the victory. I think that the homefield advantage will be too much, but if this game was in Starkville there is no doubt the MSU would win the game.
       Prediction: 34-31 Auburn

Second Tier Matchups: 
Penn State vs. Alabama (3:30 PM ET, ABC): In all honesty, this won't be that close. Alabama has a suffocating defense and that is all they will need to beat Penn State at Beaver Stadium. Alabama's quarterbacks did not look great last week against Kent State throwing 4 interceptions, but it was pretty clear that A.J. McCarron deserves to be the starter. He doesn't need to do more than manage the game and Alabama will pull out the victory.
       Prediction: 27-10 Alabama

Tennessee vs. Cincinnati (3:30 PM ET, ESPN2): This game is going to be won by a very slim margin. Tennessee seems to be on the upswing as a program, but Cincinnati has a vaunted offense that will put up points in a hurry. They are returning QB Zach Collaros, who threw for over 3,100 yards last year, RB Isaiah Pead, as well as big time playmaker DJ Woods. Cincinnati looks a lot like a poor man's Oregon, and if you remember the ducks had no problem destroying UT last year 48-13. Cincy's explosive offense put up 72 points against Austin Peay last week and will be too much for the Vols this week.
       Prediction: 31-27 Cincinnati

The Rest:
Arkansas vs. New Mexico (7:00 PM ET, ESPNU): 41-13 Arkansas
LSU vs. Northwestern St. (8:00 PM ET): 35-7 LSU
Ole Miss vs. Southern Ill. (6:00 PM ET): 24-17 Ole Miss
Florida vs. UAB (7:00 PM ET, FSS): 31-6 Florida
Kentucky vs. Central Michigan (12:00 PM ET, ESPNU): 14-10 Kentucky
Vanderbilt vs. UConn (7:30 PM ET, CSS): 21-17 UConn

Lucas' Season Record: 10-2

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